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Showing posts with label Semin. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Semin. Show all posts

2012/02/29

Deadline pancake and a bunch of false prophets

So, the long waited NHL trade deadline came and went. Lots of articles were written and anticipation was attracted to highest levels. Then the actual day went on and pretty much nothing happened. I followed on the path of the big boys and played with the thoughts of big names moving to new teams and changing the franchises' directions. Well, should have known better. I now believe this was one big hoax conjured by the viewer hungry sports media and not really based on any proper background work.

Rick Nash stayed put. No one really even tried to get him. Or at least the seller and buyers were totally on different pages. Well, he's not entering free agency so it should have been easier to predict that all the fuzz about him was bit unnecessary.

Zach Parise, Ryan Suter, Alex Semin and other big names with big contracts that fill be free agents? No moves, nothing.

The kids with remarkably upbeat seasons, e.g. P.A. Parenteau and Michael Del Zotto? Nothing? New York teams must know something we don't to not make a move with these guys. Re-sign, that is.

Biggest of the actual trades took place before the deadline day. LA Kings putting their hope on fallen star Jeff Carter and New Jersey Devils coughing up a lot to take a chance with slick blueliner Marek Zidlicky were probably the biggest. Then there was some third line reshaping and grit adding moves by potential cup contenders. Added experience may well be worth a lot duning the long playoff run. Just as well it may be irrelevant.

It seems that the trend today is to trust in the team chemistry built in the first two thirds of the season instead of trying to pull a magical move in the last minute to get an edge. The mystifying part is that all the teams on the bubble or having already lost the season are also pretty content with what they have. One could think that the bubble teams would be willing to take the biggest risks at this time and the bottom dwellers would start dramatic reshaping by unloading the failed core of the team.

As a summary, I was disappointed with the deadline action and fooled by the buzz like everyone else. Mental note is to aim to be one step ahead of this media hype instead of following on the beaten path. We'll see..

2012/02/24

Capital mistake

Something's rotten in Washington! It's been discussed quite a while, but let's go on this topic too. The Washington Capitals have obviously failed big time to respond to the expectations this season. The media has quickly thrown Alex Ovechkin under the bus for not pulling the team to the level it belongs to. That's the easy way for laying the blame and to me it just seems a bit too light for a proper analysis. I'll throw in some thoughts of my own and hope to shed some more light on the matter.

The Capitals have been phenomenal the last few seasons. Taking home the Presidents' Trophy and three consecutive SE Division crowns. Ovechkin has been on top of the league in scoring, backed up by amazing numbers racked up by Mike Green on defence. However, the team has disappeared in the postseason every time and been criticized heavily on that.

Then, this season where everything seems to go wrong. Great start, but then just failures upon failures. Everyone is pointing fingers, but no one really takes the responsibility of changing the course. Horrible decisions have followed.

Bruce Boudreau got fired and replaced by Dale Hunter. That's replacing a coach with NHL-best record over last 3 seasons with a former NHL grinder with practically no experience on NHL level coaching. Just for a bad stretch in play. Well, now everyone can see that Hunter doesn't bring anything on the table for the Capitals and should not carry over for next season, no matter how this ends.

The Capitals' offense is based on three key players, Ovechkin, Semin and Bäckström. All of these guys are extremely skilled, but at the same time very much confidence-driven. On a bad streak, it seems, none of these guys will be the one to step up and carry the team. In general, these guys don't really have the flexibility to "go back to basics and grind it out". They're flashy, entertaining and lethally effective when the whole line plays on that level. If the line resorts to plain old basics, these guys will end up shaking their heads on the offensive blue line and waving their arms in frustration. Bench the millionaires and see who do you have to throw out there to play the 0-0 games.

Take another look and try to find out the guys who can score behind the big three. Laich, Chimera, Johansson, Brouwer? These are not exactly top of the league when compared to some other teams' secondary scoring. That's the biggest reason this team struggles mightily when the big guns are not blazing. It's easy to forget, but if one looks a bit back in history, the Capitals won a lot of 7-4, 6-5 games with the ultimate firepower. That doesn't promise much for the moment your gunpowder gets wet. And wet it has been this season. Especially after Rene Bourque cowardly clipped Niklas Bäckström out of the games.

So, the expectations for this team may be a bit too high and not based on their material, but rather on their regular season success of late. Washington is surprisingly fragile team. They lost one key piece in Mike Green early this season and haven't been able to recover for a balanced, entertaining style they require to be successful.

Washington's defense and goaltending have been mediocre at best through the great seasons but now they really show their vulnerability after losing the dominating puck possession up front. Tomas Vokoun has been on top of NHL for a long time, but seems to have lost the race against time. The young goalies in the lineup are as shaky as they come.

So, no wonder they're struggling to make it to the playoffs. And even if they do, it's easy to predict a first round exit against a top seed of Rangers, Boston or Pittsburgh for example. Simply no chance.

Let's turn our sights for the future and try to figure out what to do to change things around. Here's a short to-do list.

1) Fire Hunter and get a real coach, who understands that you need to adjust the team style according to the players and not vice versa. You can actually have different game plans for different lines, based on the strengths of the players on ice.

2) Trade Alexander Semin. He's a number one player-slash-diva for a team and will not rise to full potential in Ovechkin's shadow. Ovie is signed for life, so easy call here. In return the team will get almost the whole second line or top defensive pair.

3) Keep the faith on the superstars. Don't publicly scold the franchise player(s). Ovechkin is a natural force when mad, but quite the opposite when mad at the coach or ownership. There's a fine line to balance on but you just don't want to restrain this guy in any way. Just get over the envy for the alpha male and let Ovie run free and others will follow. Good things come, rock star style will prevail. And for ownership, don't sign the top players for 100M+ USD contracts if you don't plan to build and brand the team around them.

Start with that and see the light. Go Caps!

2012/02/17

Dare to gamble?

Okay, continuing to milk the trade deadline cow. Now I'm going through some thoughts on the potential free agents that might really spark up a team they land in. In addition I'll cover some of the ageless veterans that seem to just keep on firing on all cylinders no matter how old they get. These guys are mostly loyal to their long term teams, but there might be a chance to lure one or two out of their retirement houses by dangling the Stanley Cup in front of them. Finally I'll cover some of the ultimate risks, already proven to fail easily, but still having some hidden potential underneath.

Let's start with the impact players with somewhat inconsistent history. Number one is Washington's Alexander Semin. No matter how much the North American media hates this kid, I still believe he's up there with the best of them as far as hockey skills come. Semin is clearly unhappy as the number two primadonna in the team. OVechkin steals the spotlight and as both of these guys live for recognition as the artists they are, Semin is not going to hit his peak behind the bigger Alex. Semin has a shot like Steven Stamkos, hands like Patric Kane and skating skills to match. You just need to have the desperation level as a team to take the leap to unknown an build your offense around this young Russian. As the teams in the bottom of the standings, what can you lose? Montreal, Minnesota or something.

Another Capital is closing in on the free agency. Former league-leading defenceman, Mike Green, has the potential to be the ultimate game changer, especially on the powerplay. Just look at his stats from years 08-09 and 09-10. Green has been injured much of the past two seasons and his attitude has also been questioned. But you just don't rack up 70+ points per season as a blueliner in NHL unless you have exceptional talent day in and day out. On a team with highly skilled forward group on power play, Green could be the catalyst to just blow the PP goal column through the roof. Devils, Lightning and Ducks, just to name a few.

There's also a sneaky Swede, Kristian Huselius, who has dropped totally from the radar after injuries and other woes. This guy was producing almost a point per game in Calgary and Columbus while these teams were deep down in the bottom of the league. He managed even to crack it to the positive side of plus minus charts through 06-09. If he regains his health, this 33 year old playmaker is still very potential second line forward for any team needing secondary scoring.

Three more guys with high potential and solid careers enter the free agency unless new contracts come up soon. Brad Boyes, a lethal sniper and shootout specialist is having a horrible downswing in productivity after his high scoring years in St. Louis Blues. Install him in a proper line with a good setup man and he might well regain his level of 30+ goals per season. Olli Jokinen is playing on his best level in Calgary era. He seems to have found the groove with some true veteran leadership. Calgary is likely negotiating an extension with the Great Pumpkin Head, but Olli might be tempted to make one final attempt to be a big player in a big team. So far he has only been able to rise to high level of play while playing in mediocre teams. Edmonton's Ales Hemsky still has the speed to cause envy across the league and can pack a magnificent set of hands on top of that. The young Oilers will not make it to the playoffs yet this season. Hemsky might want to try a change of scenery for the extra notch to make it to the elite of forwards before hitting his thirties. Anyone with a gap in skill and speed should be interested. Dallas, Ottawa or even Detroit come to mind.

There are so many Hall of Fame -bound veterans still playing this season on a high level that it sometimes is hard to believe. Sweden's ironman Nicklas Lidström will likely postpone retirement and carry on for yet another season in Detroit. Even if the graying Wings run out of steam come playoff time. Martin Brodeur carries on and will want to increase his incredible numbers in a Devil uniform until retirement. I can't see Teemu Selänne migrating from warm and sunny Anaheim anywhere soon. Not even for a loan to dear neighbors San Jose or LA. He'll give the Ducks another chance and another solid year even if they miss the playoffs this season. You just cannot quit as the top scorer among this lineup while you're still skating like a 20 year old and love the game as much as Teemu.

Three more big names in the veteran corps might have a temptation play the remaining years in different teams. Jaromir Jagr might swap to another uniform for another year if he stays healthy and the Flyers mess it up early in the playoffs. Ray Whitney is absolutely killing it in Phoenix and he should be on the radar of any playoff bound team that believes that veteran leadership is critical in the postseason. Milan Hejduk is also headed for free agency and might be tempted to jump out of the Colorado train for a bit more mature team to finish off his career. Any of these guys can improve any team they land in. For some teams that rely heavily on young superstars, an elderly distinguished gentleman might be a perfect mentor. You just cannot be cocky while facing Jaromir Jagr and his merits. Take a note on this, Chicago Blackhawks.

Finally, the dark horses. Evgeni Nabokov went awol last season but humbly returned for a decent campaign in lowly NY Islanders. He might be of interest for any team with secure playoff spot but problems in the net. Chicago, Philly again. Then there are the ultimate gambles in Dustin Penner and Sean Avery. Both have proven to be valuable players to cause problems to the opponents and even score some points along with the rest of the hussle. Penner was solid big bruiser in Edmonton era, always in the face of opposing goalies. Avery was driving the opposition crazy while still amusing the home team and supporters in Rangers for a long period. Falling out of favor with the coaches has totally killed these guys' careers. For a team desperate enough and willing to gamble with the team chemistry on the line, these guys will join you on a bargain tab. Help them find their groove and give them the niche they fit in and you'll end up a winner. Penner to Washington to fill up Mike Knuble's big boots. Avery to any team that has an audience that appreciates some theatrics with their daily portion of hockey. Could the city of Chicago be ready for the Avery-show? And the young fun loving corps led by Patrick Kane might have a laugh with Sean. Captain Serious excluded of course.

2011/10/12

From Russia with love

I happened to browse some news, posts and comments on Matt Bradley's alleged radio criticism towards former Washington Capitals teammate Alexander Semin. This study led to more comments on Semin's inconsistent performances, lack of commitment and so forth. This rung a bell in similarity on articles about so many other Russian players. Alexei Kovalev comes to my mind first. Is it really a national characteristic of Russians to pull this kind of spotlight for themselves or is this just some last remains of the good old cold war in the minds of US-centric media?

In regards of Bradley's comments after leaving the team, I believe that's part of being rather young and inexperienced and getting lured into this kind of talk by the interviewer. Stupid, against the players' code of honor and outright bad for karma and career for sure. But somewhat innocent in the end. He'll be hearing about this for a while and will learn to keep his mouth shut on topics like this. Players in general stand for each others like in any team sport, only highlighting the most outrageous behavior of certain individuals. Rest of the yapping remains in the rink and locker rooms.

What comes to Russian star players in the NHL. It seems like forever since the first guys jumped over to play in the States. Since that the Soviet Union has collapsed and borders have opened. KHL has come in to offer an local language alternative. The world has changed a lot. Still, some of the writers, many of the league elderly statesmen, owners, GMs etc. are old school and don't realize that nationality isn't very important these days. It's just a job and a business. Where wouldn't we be outsourcing tasks these days?

So, I'm leaning on the side of prejudice. Guys like Semin and Kovalev have proven to be world class players. You don't score almost a point per game in NHL without extreme talent. Of course these individuals are mostly offensive weapons and save themselves for those tasks instead of grinding out the pucks in the corners or finding lanes to deliver massive checks. They have the softest hands in the league and those skills will go out in a puff of smoke after few broken wrists or separated shoulders. Not to mention the flying speed that can't really take that many torn knee tendons before the career is over. There's different shaped guys for the hard work in all teams and it's hard to put these two types of players in comparison.

Stats tell that regular season favors the guys with offensive skill and speed, but playoffs turn the scales towards hard work and never-die attitude. That shouldn't really be much of a surprise to anyone in the business. It's a long season and everything is on the line in the end. It would be hard to not get the jitters on the final push towards the ultimate reward. Guys are also banged up and tired after 82 games of regular season. There might not be enough left in the tank to pull off some of the fastest spurts or finest moves in the postseason.

If you compare Semin and Kovalev to fellow countrymen Ovechkin and Malkin, what makes a difference in the public attitude? Ovechkin loves the spotlight, he's at home as a hockey celebrity. And he has a nasty edge, some Canadian blood perhaps? Malkin is a shy and silent guy too, but has won the public over with simple talent and undeniable productivity on the rink. Another bad season for him and he'll be in the same doghouse with Semin. Be it injuries or anything else, it's just going to be unfair.

The teams are paying millions to the coaching teams that seem to fail in getting everything out of these star players at times. I wonder how their professionalism is evaluated in those spots. They should be gutsy enough to tell who's going to jump in the box at what times and not whine about it later if they've played 25 minutes some guys who don't seem to have the energy. If it's grind time, don't throw in the artists.

I see another massively productive season for Semin, even playing on the second line behind Ovie and Backström. And Washington will make a big mistake if they let this guy leave instead of talking things through along the season. Get a freakin' interpreter if the kid doesn't speak English.

Kovalev already left when he had enough. He has nothing more to prove in his age and he'll be happy playing out his career in Russia.

I'd like to end this post with an opinion that the NHL would be way less entertaining as a league without the Russian (and other Eastern block) players. The media should realize that and embrace the differences in the playing style instead of judging without looking any deeper.