So, now it has started. The season is one quarter out and coaches are getting the boot. St. Louis Blues already got rid of their starting coach and went back to old timer Hitchcock. In retrospect that looks like a brilliant move. At the time, it seemed just a bit too trigger-happy. The Blues were doing ok, not great, but I believe what was expected from them by the general public.
Now it was time for a change in struggling Carolina. Well expected and maybe their last chance to turn this season around. I can't see them clawing back to playoffs anymore, but the ownership seems to.
On the same day the biggest bomb was dropped in Washington, where Bruce Boudreau was let go after taking the Capitals from bottom dwellers to the top of the league in just a few seasons. The modern day quarter economy equivalent in the game of hockey does not look at the past results or give much of a chance of failure. All over the media the explanations from Capitals' ownership were rather dodgy. And the sheer amount of interviews claiming that Boudreau had no bad blood with Ovechkin or vice versa, actually prove the opposite point. The team, lead by its celebrity captain, just couldn't work for this guy anymore. Some new system, huh?
It's a some sort of a miracle that Columbus Blue Jackets haven't fired their coach yet. They're actually already at the point where the ownership has given up on the season and seem to have decided to save some money instead of having to pay salaries for two coaches. If the fans start some sort of a mutiny, maybe they'll comply and claim that they're building for the next season with the move.
Anaheim Ducks have slipped down to the bottom of the league. They're running out of the seasons where they can keep their star lineup together and it must be just a matter of getting the papers out of their printer, before they have a new coach. They need to push for the Cup run now or face the return to rebuilding mode in the coming seasons.
After rather disappointing start of a season, coaching changes may arise in Tampa Bay or even Montreal. Colorado's brilliant start may have taken the expectations up a notch too to jeopardize the current leadership now that they've actually just fallen to the expected levels.
The rest of the struggling teams are either young and expected still to have growth pains, like Edmonton, Winnipeg and New York Islanders or just plain clueless like Calgary and New Jersey and cannot seem to see what good could another coaching change do.
The fun of getting fired from the NHL head coach position doesn't end in the heavy paychecks that usually follow through the original contract. It also seems to be a commonly agreed fact that failed coaches instantly regain the trust on their competence by all the teams in need of a new guy behind the bench. Fail as miserably as you can and it's still likely that you get hired before the season is over. Pick up two paychecks for the rest of the year as a bonus.
Now it's going to be very interesting to see how the chips fall with the teams with the most pressure to act. I wouldn't be surprised to see Mr. Boudreau moving down to sunny California before the end of this week..
2011/11/30
2011/11/23
If I was a gambling man
Let's put the hockey hunch to grind in some money. The local betting office posts the ratios for win, loss and a regulation tie. And since it all seems so clear in the ways of the league, it's about time to do a reality check of sorts. I'll just pick up a few games that are sure, easy money and another bunch of a bit longer shots but bigger potential payout. Five bucks each. Short analysis for each pair and a remorseful recap in the morning to close up the post. Don't worry, I won't tamper my original estimates and try to appear smarter than I am. Let's face it, if it would be this easy, it wouldn't be available for the common audience. Let's go then!
Sure bets, absolutely cannot go wrong with these, right?
NYI-PHI: Well, Philly takes this easily. They're bigger, meaner, stronger and have loads of more talent throughout the roster. Islanders still wonder what hit them on Monday, something black and yellow and #87, and forget to play the game. Returns 1,95:1, ka-ching.
PIT-STL: Crosby honeymoon is on and St. Louis is not the team to challenge that. Sid the Kid will deposit a few more points and the supporting cast wants to prove they're right on par with the wonder boy. A night to forget for coach Hitchcock's band. Another multiplier of 1,75:1 for my bucks.
BUF-BOS: The Sabres are very similar to the Bruins, just worse on every aspect at the moment. The teams play similar style of hard working, evenly balanced lines. Thomas outduels Enroth easily and Boston's boys just walk over their counterparts for the victory #10 in the current hot streak. Finalizes my sure money bet with complimentary 2,20:1.
I'll bring home a sweet pot of €37,50 for an investment of $5,00. Like taking candy from a kid.
Then the trickier bet. Not that this is too difficult either, but there's a remote chance that someone somewhere along the line screws up my moneymaker.
WAS-WPG: Boudreau's big guns are soon all on the shelf with the new style of boring, non-scoring game plan. Today they give this style the final try and get crushed by the inconsistent, but capable-when-given-the-opportunity, Jets. For the next game Bruce gives up on the plan for the playoff grind and lets the two Alexes play like they like. Then it'll be very difficult to say what will happen on the ice. This sleeper starts my bigger cash-in with a whopper 3,55:1.
NJ-CLB: The Blue Jackets seem to have found some groove now that they can just play for fun for the rest of the season. The Devils are a perfect opponent for that kind of approach, being the gloomy, play-the-gameplan, uninnovative team that they are. Carter puts in a pair and Nash complements with two of his own. Curtis Sanford wants to prove he can be the long lost number one netminder and who would be better opposing goalie to take for the comparison than the best ever to stand between the pipes, Martin Brodeur. Jackets' third in a row multiplies my dough by 3,45:1.
MIN-NAS: These teams will play another very low scoring game. Minnesota finds itself on top of the league, but absolutely cannot score. Nashville had major difficulties against the young Oilers' squad and need to prove that they're actually way better. Pekka Rinne will shut the door after being benched after the first on Tuesday and the team will play much more solid game today. However, they're against the ultra defensive Wild who can throw either goalie out there and keep the score low. As much as I hate to bet on ties, this sure looks like one. Hell, we might be looking at a 0-0 in the end. The sleepy effort will not match the money invested in tickets, but will finish my triple with a sweet 3,65:1 cherry on top.
My second crumpled note of five euros will explode to a highly satisfying payout of €223,50 in the end of the day.
-- end of evening brag.
-- beginning of morning whine.
Okay, this got rather ridiculous. I was expecting that I can somehow explain myself out of a slight deviation from the original guess, but the reality requires a bit more. I outright busted on the bets in the end. No need to consider a new career here, yet.
Sure picks, right? Philly won the Islanders, but barely and only in overtime. So that ended in a tie on the betting results. Sid the Kid fell short and somehow the Blues ended up taking the game. Again in the overtime, so another tie. And Boston Bruins then? They got the victory, but only with the slightest of margins and after a third period rally. Another tie in regulation and the victory only in the overtime. Three out of three wrong on the sure picks. What a way to start.
Well, after that it's pretty obvious that the higher degree of analysis didn't go much better. The Capitals did eventually beat the Jets, again on the overtime. Not an easy victory, but not the result I picked either. The Blue Jackets did have the moral victory in totally dominating the game against the Devils. However, it was Martin Brodeur, who stole the show, not Curtis Sanford. A regulation tie again and shootout victory to New Jersey. Finally, I can end this disastrous recap of my prophetic abilities on a regulation victory. It was close as I predicted, but Minnesota Wild ended up scoring one more than the Nashville Predators. I need to point my finger at Pekka Rinne on this one, the third and decisive goal was rather embarassing. Solid three out of three wrong here too.
This was a fun excercise, even though the results were downright awful. Maybe I need to get another crystal ball and give it a try somewhere in the future. Can't really go much worse than this, right? With so many regulation ties this night, I'd bet (huh!?) that very few got their picks right. The betting offices were the big winners on this round.
Sure bets, absolutely cannot go wrong with these, right?
NYI-PHI: Well, Philly takes this easily. They're bigger, meaner, stronger and have loads of more talent throughout the roster. Islanders still wonder what hit them on Monday, something black and yellow and #87, and forget to play the game. Returns 1,95:1, ka-ching.
PIT-STL: Crosby honeymoon is on and St. Louis is not the team to challenge that. Sid the Kid will deposit a few more points and the supporting cast wants to prove they're right on par with the wonder boy. A night to forget for coach Hitchcock's band. Another multiplier of 1,75:1 for my bucks.
BUF-BOS: The Sabres are very similar to the Bruins, just worse on every aspect at the moment. The teams play similar style of hard working, evenly balanced lines. Thomas outduels Enroth easily and Boston's boys just walk over their counterparts for the victory #10 in the current hot streak. Finalizes my sure money bet with complimentary 2,20:1.
I'll bring home a sweet pot of €37,50 for an investment of $5,00. Like taking candy from a kid.
Then the trickier bet. Not that this is too difficult either, but there's a remote chance that someone somewhere along the line screws up my moneymaker.
WAS-WPG: Boudreau's big guns are soon all on the shelf with the new style of boring, non-scoring game plan. Today they give this style the final try and get crushed by the inconsistent, but capable-when-given-the-opportunity, Jets. For the next game Bruce gives up on the plan for the playoff grind and lets the two Alexes play like they like. Then it'll be very difficult to say what will happen on the ice. This sleeper starts my bigger cash-in with a whopper 3,55:1.
NJ-CLB: The Blue Jackets seem to have found some groove now that they can just play for fun for the rest of the season. The Devils are a perfect opponent for that kind of approach, being the gloomy, play-the-gameplan, uninnovative team that they are. Carter puts in a pair and Nash complements with two of his own. Curtis Sanford wants to prove he can be the long lost number one netminder and who would be better opposing goalie to take for the comparison than the best ever to stand between the pipes, Martin Brodeur. Jackets' third in a row multiplies my dough by 3,45:1.
MIN-NAS: These teams will play another very low scoring game. Minnesota finds itself on top of the league, but absolutely cannot score. Nashville had major difficulties against the young Oilers' squad and need to prove that they're actually way better. Pekka Rinne will shut the door after being benched after the first on Tuesday and the team will play much more solid game today. However, they're against the ultra defensive Wild who can throw either goalie out there and keep the score low. As much as I hate to bet on ties, this sure looks like one. Hell, we might be looking at a 0-0 in the end. The sleepy effort will not match the money invested in tickets, but will finish my triple with a sweet 3,65:1 cherry on top.
My second crumpled note of five euros will explode to a highly satisfying payout of €223,50 in the end of the day.
-- end of evening brag.
-- beginning of morning whine.
Okay, this got rather ridiculous. I was expecting that I can somehow explain myself out of a slight deviation from the original guess, but the reality requires a bit more. I outright busted on the bets in the end. No need to consider a new career here, yet.
Sure picks, right? Philly won the Islanders, but barely and only in overtime. So that ended in a tie on the betting results. Sid the Kid fell short and somehow the Blues ended up taking the game. Again in the overtime, so another tie. And Boston Bruins then? They got the victory, but only with the slightest of margins and after a third period rally. Another tie in regulation and the victory only in the overtime. Three out of three wrong on the sure picks. What a way to start.
Well, after that it's pretty obvious that the higher degree of analysis didn't go much better. The Capitals did eventually beat the Jets, again on the overtime. Not an easy victory, but not the result I picked either. The Blue Jackets did have the moral victory in totally dominating the game against the Devils. However, it was Martin Brodeur, who stole the show, not Curtis Sanford. A regulation tie again and shootout victory to New Jersey. Finally, I can end this disastrous recap of my prophetic abilities on a regulation victory. It was close as I predicted, but Minnesota Wild ended up scoring one more than the Nashville Predators. I need to point my finger at Pekka Rinne on this one, the third and decisive goal was rather embarassing. Solid three out of three wrong here too.
This was a fun excercise, even though the results were downright awful. Maybe I need to get another crystal ball and give it a try somewhere in the future. Can't really go much worse than this, right? With so many regulation ties this night, I'd bet (huh!?) that very few got their picks right. The betting offices were the big winners on this round.
2011/11/21
Funky stats
There's enough games under everyone's belt to take a deeper look on the statistics so far. Not looking at the obvious ones, everyone can see those, but trying to peek behind the scenes and point out some oddities. Somewhat random, but if you're in, strangely interesting.
Disappearance of Alex Ovechkin. The guy gets paid 100k a game, has proven to be one of the unique talents in the league, but now lingers somewhere in mediocrity. 14 points in 18 games is fine for most, but less than expected from Ovie. The troubling fact is his -6 rating. That's the worst in the whole team! And the team is way over .500 and +2 on goals. What has Alex been doing? Not shooting is one thing. In the previous seasons he's been blasting away on the top of the league stats. Now, barely in top20. Defending, like coach Boudreau claims? Half of the hits than the league's biggest bruisers, three blocked shots. Doesn't look like much. He's playing 3-5 minutes less than in the previous years, maybe due to less than expected production. The bottom line seems to be that mr. Ovechkin is either injured or just not motivated enough. Both are bad for Washington, but later might be harder to fix.
The curse of Eric Staal. Staal has been among the top forwards of this league for several years. He's proven to be a great captain and a hard worker. But now he and his team are in a slump to remember. Leading the league unchallenged in -18. Shooting second most in the league with 5% accuracy. 8 points in 20 games, half of them in powerplay. Talk about squeezing the stick. Big Eric must snap out of this and carry the Hurricanes on his back again, if they have any dreams of the playoffs.
Teen-aged and fearless. Have you noticed a kid called Gabriel Landeskog in Colorado Avalanche? Well, if not, please look for the number #92 in the future. This Swedish rookie is in top20 of the league in shots fired and hits delivered. And was just promoted to play in the top line. Must be hard to miss. It's great to see the rookies of today playing just like the big boys. No fear, no bowing, and ready to challenge. Edmonton's Ryan Nugent-Hopkins just posted 5 assists the other day. Wonder how many rookies have had that many on a game in the history of this sport? Well a guy named Gretzky had 7 back in the day, but Nugent-Hopkins likely made it to the top 5. Coincidentally, that heroic effort also puts Ryan on par with slightly older, but yet ever promising forward from the Ducks, Teemu Selänne. It'll be a fun race between guys aged 18 and 41 for the rest of the season. Place your bets!
Grabbing the momentum in the circle. Chicago's Jonathan Toews leads the league in faceoffs taken and has the biggest win percentage of the active centers on the paint at whopping 62,4%. That sure brings an extra edge to the game when you can grab almost two out of three to your linemates. And the linemates in particular are called Kane and Hossa, which doesn't hurt either. On the other end of the spectrum we have the polite Czech, Patrik Elias, from the Devils, who takes only a modest share of 42,4% of the many faceoffs he faces. I wonder, could the wingers do much worse there?
The Suter-Weber wall. Among the Nashville Predators' hot topics is how to keep their top defencive pair of Ryan Suter and Shea Weber. That might prove to be a bit tricky, but that shouldn't keep the team from enjoying the ride these two defensive monsters bring. They have the biggest plus minus ratings in the league, they stand in the top5 in d-man scoring and just seem to do everything right at the moment. I'd hate to play as a visiting forward in Nashville when paired agains these two. Tough and frustrating in the offensive zone, outright scary in the defensive zone diving in front of Weber's cannon.
Speaking of defensemen, Colorado's ever promising Erik Johnson must be hating the stats charts. He just hit 50 shots, leading the league in attempts in vain. Zero goals, one assist on even strength (8 more on powerplay though) and a miserable -12 rating. Can't really say that he's fulfilled the expectations yet. Maybe he should call up Detroit's colleagues Lidström and Kronwall for some consulting. They've both let go about as many shots and are looking at 6 goals apiece. Not to mention the positive ratings in plus minus column.
Well, that was the take today. I'll be drilling more some other time. Hope you enjoy!
Disappearance of Alex Ovechkin. The guy gets paid 100k a game, has proven to be one of the unique talents in the league, but now lingers somewhere in mediocrity. 14 points in 18 games is fine for most, but less than expected from Ovie. The troubling fact is his -6 rating. That's the worst in the whole team! And the team is way over .500 and +2 on goals. What has Alex been doing? Not shooting is one thing. In the previous seasons he's been blasting away on the top of the league stats. Now, barely in top20. Defending, like coach Boudreau claims? Half of the hits than the league's biggest bruisers, three blocked shots. Doesn't look like much. He's playing 3-5 minutes less than in the previous years, maybe due to less than expected production. The bottom line seems to be that mr. Ovechkin is either injured or just not motivated enough. Both are bad for Washington, but later might be harder to fix.
The curse of Eric Staal. Staal has been among the top forwards of this league for several years. He's proven to be a great captain and a hard worker. But now he and his team are in a slump to remember. Leading the league unchallenged in -18. Shooting second most in the league with 5% accuracy. 8 points in 20 games, half of them in powerplay. Talk about squeezing the stick. Big Eric must snap out of this and carry the Hurricanes on his back again, if they have any dreams of the playoffs.
Teen-aged and fearless. Have you noticed a kid called Gabriel Landeskog in Colorado Avalanche? Well, if not, please look for the number #92 in the future. This Swedish rookie is in top20 of the league in shots fired and hits delivered. And was just promoted to play in the top line. Must be hard to miss. It's great to see the rookies of today playing just like the big boys. No fear, no bowing, and ready to challenge. Edmonton's Ryan Nugent-Hopkins just posted 5 assists the other day. Wonder how many rookies have had that many on a game in the history of this sport? Well a guy named Gretzky had 7 back in the day, but Nugent-Hopkins likely made it to the top 5. Coincidentally, that heroic effort also puts Ryan on par with slightly older, but yet ever promising forward from the Ducks, Teemu Selänne. It'll be a fun race between guys aged 18 and 41 for the rest of the season. Place your bets!
Grabbing the momentum in the circle. Chicago's Jonathan Toews leads the league in faceoffs taken and has the biggest win percentage of the active centers on the paint at whopping 62,4%. That sure brings an extra edge to the game when you can grab almost two out of three to your linemates. And the linemates in particular are called Kane and Hossa, which doesn't hurt either. On the other end of the spectrum we have the polite Czech, Patrik Elias, from the Devils, who takes only a modest share of 42,4% of the many faceoffs he faces. I wonder, could the wingers do much worse there?
The Suter-Weber wall. Among the Nashville Predators' hot topics is how to keep their top defencive pair of Ryan Suter and Shea Weber. That might prove to be a bit tricky, but that shouldn't keep the team from enjoying the ride these two defensive monsters bring. They have the biggest plus minus ratings in the league, they stand in the top5 in d-man scoring and just seem to do everything right at the moment. I'd hate to play as a visiting forward in Nashville when paired agains these two. Tough and frustrating in the offensive zone, outright scary in the defensive zone diving in front of Weber's cannon.
Speaking of defensemen, Colorado's ever promising Erik Johnson must be hating the stats charts. He just hit 50 shots, leading the league in attempts in vain. Zero goals, one assist on even strength (8 more on powerplay though) and a miserable -12 rating. Can't really say that he's fulfilled the expectations yet. Maybe he should call up Detroit's colleagues Lidström and Kronwall for some consulting. They've both let go about as many shots and are looking at 6 goals apiece. Not to mention the positive ratings in plus minus column.
Well, that was the take today. I'll be drilling more some other time. Hope you enjoy!
2011/11/18
Pulling off a Granlund
Hockey world, prepare for the newest trick in the bag! Originating likely from some other sports, like lacrosse or floorball, the so called airhook is emerging in the game of hockey. The talented younger kids on the game can sometimes playfully take the puck on top of the stick blade, spin it around and sling it off towards the target. This truly puts another angle in deceiving the goaltenders.
Mostly this kind of trickery seems to be reserved for skills competitions and other moments of showing off. However, leading the pack of taking this as one of the potential weapons in the live game action, are the Granlund brothers from Finland. Mikael basically introduced this trick to the wide world in the last hockey world championships by crushing the favorite Russian team's spirit in the semifinals. Yesterday, his younger brother Markus pulled the same stunt off in Finland's top hockey league.
These brothers will soon arrive to the NHL, Mikael Granlund was drafted on the first round in 2010 by Minnesota Wild and Markus Granlund on the second round in 2011 by Calgary Flames. Judging by their success on European and world level, they'll have a great chance for an interesting NHL career.
Just like that, it seems that goalies and defensemen need to take a while to plan for counter tactics before this trick starts really picking up among the forwards. Leave this unnoticed and soon you'll be seeing this kind of goals in every game. Some might say it doesn't belong in the game. Anyway, as long as the kids get more skillful every year, you can expect these kinds of minor changes emerging every once in a while.
I'll end this short post with a tribute to one of the originators of the airhook, form the great nordic game of floorball, Janne Tähkä. Check it out, even if you wouldn't know the game.
Mostly this kind of trickery seems to be reserved for skills competitions and other moments of showing off. However, leading the pack of taking this as one of the potential weapons in the live game action, are the Granlund brothers from Finland. Mikael basically introduced this trick to the wide world in the last hockey world championships by crushing the favorite Russian team's spirit in the semifinals. Yesterday, his younger brother Markus pulled the same stunt off in Finland's top hockey league.
These brothers will soon arrive to the NHL, Mikael Granlund was drafted on the first round in 2010 by Minnesota Wild and Markus Granlund on the second round in 2011 by Calgary Flames. Judging by their success on European and world level, they'll have a great chance for an interesting NHL career.
Just like that, it seems that goalies and defensemen need to take a while to plan for counter tactics before this trick starts really picking up among the forwards. Leave this unnoticed and soon you'll be seeing this kind of goals in every game. Some might say it doesn't belong in the game. Anyway, as long as the kids get more skillful every year, you can expect these kinds of minor changes emerging every once in a while.
I'll end this short post with a tribute to one of the originators of the airhook, form the great nordic game of floorball, Janne Tähkä. Check it out, even if you wouldn't know the game.
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