Capital mistake

Something's rotten in Washington! It's been discussed quite a while, but let's go on this topic too. The Washington Capitals have obviously failed big time to respond to the expectations this season. The media has quickly thrown Alex Ovechkin under the bus for not pulling the team to the level it belongs to. That's the easy way for laying the blame and to me it just seems a bit too light for a proper analysis. I'll throw in some thoughts of my own and hope to shed some more light on the matter.

The Capitals have been phenomenal the last few seasons. Taking home the Presidents' Trophy and three consecutive SE Division crowns. Ovechkin has been on top of the league in scoring, backed up by amazing numbers racked up by Mike Green on defence. However, the team has disappeared in the postseason every time and been criticized heavily on that.

Then, this season where everything seems to go wrong. Great start, but then just failures upon failures. Everyone is pointing fingers, but no one really takes the responsibility of changing the course. Horrible decisions have followed.

Bruce Boudreau got fired and replaced by Dale Hunter. That's replacing a coach with NHL-best record over last 3 seasons with a former NHL grinder with practically no experience on NHL level coaching. Just for a bad stretch in play. Well, now everyone can see that Hunter doesn't bring anything on the table for the Capitals and should not carry over for next season, no matter how this ends.

The Capitals' offense is based on three key players, Ovechkin, Semin and Bäckström. All of these guys are extremely skilled, but at the same time very much confidence-driven. On a bad streak, it seems, none of these guys will be the one to step up and carry the team. In general, these guys don't really have the flexibility to "go back to basics and grind it out". They're flashy, entertaining and lethally effective when the whole line plays on that level. If the line resorts to plain old basics, these guys will end up shaking their heads on the offensive blue line and waving their arms in frustration. Bench the millionaires and see who do you have to throw out there to play the 0-0 games.

Take another look and try to find out the guys who can score behind the big three. Laich, Chimera, Johansson, Brouwer? These are not exactly top of the league when compared to some other teams' secondary scoring. That's the biggest reason this team struggles mightily when the big guns are not blazing. It's easy to forget, but if one looks a bit back in history, the Capitals won a lot of 7-4, 6-5 games with the ultimate firepower. That doesn't promise much for the moment your gunpowder gets wet. And wet it has been this season. Especially after Rene Bourque cowardly clipped Niklas Bäckström out of the games.

So, the expectations for this team may be a bit too high and not based on their material, but rather on their regular season success of late. Washington is surprisingly fragile team. They lost one key piece in Mike Green early this season and haven't been able to recover for a balanced, entertaining style they require to be successful.

Washington's defense and goaltending have been mediocre at best through the great seasons but now they really show their vulnerability after losing the dominating puck possession up front. Tomas Vokoun has been on top of NHL for a long time, but seems to have lost the race against time. The young goalies in the lineup are as shaky as they come.

So, no wonder they're struggling to make it to the playoffs. And even if they do, it's easy to predict a first round exit against a top seed of Rangers, Boston or Pittsburgh for example. Simply no chance.

Let's turn our sights for the future and try to figure out what to do to change things around. Here's a short to-do list.

1) Fire Hunter and get a real coach, who understands that you need to adjust the team style according to the players and not vice versa. You can actually have different game plans for different lines, based on the strengths of the players on ice.

2) Trade Alexander Semin. He's a number one player-slash-diva for a team and will not rise to full potential in Ovechkin's shadow. Ovie is signed for life, so easy call here. In return the team will get almost the whole second line or top defensive pair.

3) Keep the faith on the superstars. Don't publicly scold the franchise player(s). Ovechkin is a natural force when mad, but quite the opposite when mad at the coach or ownership. There's a fine line to balance on but you just don't want to restrain this guy in any way. Just get over the envy for the alpha male and let Ovie run free and others will follow. Good things come, rock star style will prevail. And for ownership, don't sign the top players for 100M+ USD contracts if you don't plan to build and brand the team around them.

Start with that and see the light. Go Caps!

Funky stats

There's enough games under everyone's belt to take a deeper look on the statistics so far. Not looking at the obvious ones, everyone can see those, but trying to peek behind the scenes and point out some oddities. Somewhat random, but if you're in, strangely interesting.

Disappearance of Alex Ovechkin. The guy gets paid 100k a game, has proven to be one of the unique talents in the league, but now lingers somewhere in mediocrity. 14 points in 18 games is fine for most, but less than expected from Ovie. The troubling fact is his -6 rating. That's the worst in the whole team! And the team is way over .500 and +2 on goals. What has Alex been doing? Not shooting is one thing. In the previous seasons he's been blasting away on the top of the league stats. Now, barely in top20. Defending, like coach Boudreau claims? Half of the hits than the league's biggest bruisers, three blocked shots. Doesn't look like much. He's playing 3-5 minutes less than in the previous years, maybe due to less than expected production. The bottom line seems to be that mr. Ovechkin is either injured or just not motivated enough. Both are bad for Washington, but later might be harder to fix.

The curse of Eric Staal. Staal has been among the top forwards of this league for several years. He's proven to be a great captain and a hard worker. But now he and his team are in a slump to remember. Leading the league unchallenged in -18. Shooting second most in the league with 5% accuracy. 8 points in 20 games, half of them in powerplay. Talk about squeezing the stick. Big Eric must snap out of this and carry the Hurricanes on his back again, if they have any dreams of the playoffs.

Teen-aged and fearless. Have you noticed a kid called Gabriel Landeskog in Colorado Avalanche? Well, if not, please look for the number #92 in the future. This Swedish rookie is in top20 of the league in shots fired and hits delivered. And was just promoted to play in the top line. Must be hard to miss. It's great to see the rookies of today playing just like the big boys. No fear, no bowing, and ready to challenge. Edmonton's Ryan Nugent-Hopkins just posted 5 assists the other day. Wonder how many rookies have had that many on a game in the history of this sport? Well a guy named Gretzky had 7 back in the day, but Nugent-Hopkins likely made it to the top 5. Coincidentally, that heroic effort also puts Ryan on par with slightly older, but yet ever promising forward from the Ducks, Teemu Selänne. It'll be a fun race between guys aged 18 and 41 for the rest of the season. Place your bets!

Grabbing the momentum in the circle. Chicago's Jonathan Toews leads the league in faceoffs taken and has the biggest win percentage of the active centers on the paint at whopping 62,4%. That sure brings an extra edge to the game when you can grab almost two out of three to your linemates. And the linemates in particular are called Kane and Hossa, which doesn't hurt either. On the other end of the spectrum we have the polite Czech, Patrik Elias, from the Devils, who takes only a modest share of 42,4% of the many faceoffs he faces. I wonder, could the wingers do much worse there?

The Suter-Weber wall. Among the Nashville Predators' hot topics is how to keep their top defencive pair of Ryan Suter and Shea Weber. That might prove to be a bit tricky, but that shouldn't keep the team from enjoying the ride these two defensive monsters bring. They have the biggest plus minus ratings in the league, they stand in the top5 in d-man scoring and just seem to do everything right at the moment. I'd hate to play as a visiting forward in Nashville when paired agains these two. Tough and frustrating in the offensive zone, outright scary in the defensive zone diving in front of Weber's cannon.

Speaking of defensemen, Colorado's ever promising Erik Johnson must be hating the stats charts. He just hit 50 shots, leading the league in attempts in vain. Zero goals, one assist on even strength (8 more on powerplay though) and a miserable -12 rating. Can't really say that he's fulfilled the expectations yet. Maybe he should call up Detroit's colleagues Lidström and Kronwall for some consulting. They've both let go about as many shots and are looking at 6 goals apiece. Not to mention the positive ratings in plus minus column.

Well, that was the take today. I'll be drilling more some other time. Hope you enjoy!

From Russia with love

I happened to browse some news, posts and comments on Matt Bradley's alleged radio criticism towards former Washington Capitals teammate Alexander Semin. This study led to more comments on Semin's inconsistent performances, lack of commitment and so forth. This rung a bell in similarity on articles about so many other Russian players. Alexei Kovalev comes to my mind first. Is it really a national characteristic of Russians to pull this kind of spotlight for themselves or is this just some last remains of the good old cold war in the minds of US-centric media?

In regards of Bradley's comments after leaving the team, I believe that's part of being rather young and inexperienced and getting lured into this kind of talk by the interviewer. Stupid, against the players' code of honor and outright bad for karma and career for sure. But somewhat innocent in the end. He'll be hearing about this for a while and will learn to keep his mouth shut on topics like this. Players in general stand for each others like in any team sport, only highlighting the most outrageous behavior of certain individuals. Rest of the yapping remains in the rink and locker rooms.

What comes to Russian star players in the NHL. It seems like forever since the first guys jumped over to play in the States. Since that the Soviet Union has collapsed and borders have opened. KHL has come in to offer an local language alternative. The world has changed a lot. Still, some of the writers, many of the league elderly statesmen, owners, GMs etc. are old school and don't realize that nationality isn't very important these days. It's just a job and a business. Where wouldn't we be outsourcing tasks these days?

So, I'm leaning on the side of prejudice. Guys like Semin and Kovalev have proven to be world class players. You don't score almost a point per game in NHL without extreme talent. Of course these individuals are mostly offensive weapons and save themselves for those tasks instead of grinding out the pucks in the corners or finding lanes to deliver massive checks. They have the softest hands in the league and those skills will go out in a puff of smoke after few broken wrists or separated shoulders. Not to mention the flying speed that can't really take that many torn knee tendons before the career is over. There's different shaped guys for the hard work in all teams and it's hard to put these two types of players in comparison.

Stats tell that regular season favors the guys with offensive skill and speed, but playoffs turn the scales towards hard work and never-die attitude. That shouldn't really be much of a surprise to anyone in the business. It's a long season and everything is on the line in the end. It would be hard to not get the jitters on the final push towards the ultimate reward. Guys are also banged up and tired after 82 games of regular season. There might not be enough left in the tank to pull off some of the fastest spurts or finest moves in the postseason.

If you compare Semin and Kovalev to fellow countrymen Ovechkin and Malkin, what makes a difference in the public attitude? Ovechkin loves the spotlight, he's at home as a hockey celebrity. And he has a nasty edge, some Canadian blood perhaps? Malkin is a shy and silent guy too, but has won the public over with simple talent and undeniable productivity on the rink. Another bad season for him and he'll be in the same doghouse with Semin. Be it injuries or anything else, it's just going to be unfair.

The teams are paying millions to the coaching teams that seem to fail in getting everything out of these star players at times. I wonder how their professionalism is evaluated in those spots. They should be gutsy enough to tell who's going to jump in the box at what times and not whine about it later if they've played 25 minutes some guys who don't seem to have the energy. If it's grind time, don't throw in the artists.

I see another massively productive season for Semin, even playing on the second line behind Ovie and Backström. And Washington will make a big mistake if they let this guy leave instead of talking things through along the season. Get a freakin' interpreter if the kid doesn't speak English.

Kovalev already left when he had enough. He has nothing more to prove in his age and he'll be happy playing out his career in Russia.

I'd like to end this post with an opinion that the NHL would be way less entertaining as a league without the Russian (and other Eastern block) players. The media should realize that and embrace the differences in the playing style instead of judging without looking any deeper.

The eternal Crosby vs. Ovechkin discussion

Okay, here's another topic that has been chewed down to the bone. I just can't help taking part. I'll try to tell you what the others think, maybe even share my personal opinion. So, which one of these ultimate superstars is best?

First. If you talk to Canadians, well, you're on somewhat biased territory. Crosby has been stamped the best player since Gretzky and Lemieux since he's been a little kid. And by no means in vain. He's just terrific and if you think of the pressure, his career so far is even more amazing. The NHL is not the same as it was with the previous greats, so it's practically impossible for anyone to challenge e.g. Gretzky's records. Players and teams in general are just so much better and more evenly matched.

Also, if you talk with the traditionalists in hockey circles, the answer is pretty much always Crosby. The most praised hockey analysts are from the US and Canada. Their wisdom is quoted over and over by "lesser hockey nations". They speak English. An English speaking kid is by default easier to get a grip on. So let's go with Sid. Ovie has taken English language over with similar stunning fashion as he's taken the NHL. However, he's still the foreign kid.

Also, the older generation just cannot get over the cold war approach to eastern players, especially Russians. It sometimes is just hilarious when these guys go on and on in trying to generalize a Russian player with "bad habits" like low work ethics, diving, not being physical, obstructing with the stick, being individuals instead of team players etc. These analysts should be moved out of the throne and let younger knowledge take over the modern media.

I don't understand Russian, but it doesn't take much of a magician to guess that on that side of the "iron curtain" analysts opinions are somewhat opposite. In my native Finland, with somewhat intimate history with the Russians, most of the media follows blindly on the path of the North America. Exceptions exist and make the whole hockey coverage somewhat tolerable.

But let's put the politics aside and concentrate on these two guys. Crosby, as said before, was breed to become the face of the NHL. Ovechkin took most of the hockey world by surprise. Of course he hit the radar of all scouts, but his emergence from yet another Russian kid coming over to NHL to becoming the most thrilling force on the ice is as amazing as it comes. Easier path than Crosby's, especially on mental level. Who knows how the Russian athlete machinery came up with this masterpiece.

But how to compare these guys? Statistics, well, both have been leading the scoring for the last years. Consistency, both are very much present at every game. They may miss a beat here and there, but not for more than a game or two. Meaning to the team, both have taken the bottom feeder teams and practically carried the whole franchises from near bankrupcy and bottom of the standings to biggest cup contenders and the franchises with biggest fan following. Team sport, right?

So, what about the other angle? Which team would dive deeper if they lost the star? My guess, Washington. The fallback stars are Malkin in Pittsburgh and Semin&Bäckström in Washington. Malkin has proven that he can carry the team on tough spots, Semin has proven that he cannot. Bäckström is a mystery, but doesn't look like a leader, at least yet. Fantastic players, all of these anyway. Not a massive difference here either.

Let's dig into the details. Shot, Ovie, no question about it. Passing, Sid. Physicality, Ovie, duh. Shootouts, Sid, by far. Reckless penalties, Ovie. Losing the peer respect by talking, Sid. Jokes, Ovie. Classic boyschool interviews, Sid. Individual efforts, Ovie. Positioning, Sid.

On purely physical skills, Ovie takes the edge. On mental side it's Sid. Show value is just great for both.

So is there some kind of a conclusion? Not really. Every team would take either one of them and sacrifice half of the roster in doing so. The owners want to lock these guys for life. If a team needs a "lead-by-example" person, go with Sid. If you need someone to look up and in awe to raise the team spirits, go with Ovie.

My personal take. Well, for fantasy league, Ovie has an edge on producing it all, points, penalties. For Finnish national team, Crosby could show the next generation of players what it takes to make it to the absolute top. For a beer downtown, definitely Ovechkin. For a hardcore hockey follower, Sid. For an occasional fan, Ovie and his highlights.

In the end, what would be even more interesting than choosing the better one? What would these two do together on the line. Best center and best winger. Throw in some speedy bruiser with a goalmouth scoring touch and you'd get the line of a century. I'll keep my fingers crossed for all-stars game, as lame as it is..