While the NHL playoffs are heating up for the second round, there will be another show played in Slovakia early May. The hockey world championships are about to start and it's definitely going to be a thrilling two weeks too.
I just checked out the rosters of some of the top candidates to win it all. Here's some random thoughts on the setup before the first puck drops.
Canada seems to be determined to get back on the throne after three years off. There's a very good team out there with young rising superstars supported by some solid success stories from the earlier internationals. Rick Nash is going to finish some breakaways again. Hopefully not against Finland.
Russia continues the trend to build most of the roster from KHL and let the smaller rink specialists rest for next NHL seasons. There's still the ever-so-dynamic Ilya Kovalchuk to keep an eye on in the scoring stats. Tough team and really at home on the larger rink.
Sweden seems to settle with mostly Swedish league players, still being supported by some really good NHL players, like Loui Eriksson. A hard team to beat as always, but slightly below Canada and Russia on my expectations.
Czechs and Slovaks have both pretty local rosters as well, with some bright superstars like Marian Gaborik aiming to end their seasons with a high note after swift exit from NHL playoffs. Not likely to fight for the gold, but you never know.
USA brings in the weakest team on paper for a long time. Maybe the NHL second-liners have gotten tired on travelling to Europe to be pushed over on first elimination round or something. Now there's a bunch of guys who just played in junior level championships. Not that these aren't really dangerous when in the right groove, but missing the experience is likely to leave them out of the medal games again.
Finland has been losing the foothold in NHL and it is shown in our roster too. There's a way too big gap between NHL heroes Tuomo Ruutu and Mikko Koivu and the average lineup gathered from Finnish and other European leagues and KHL. Solid goaltending and some surprise scoring punch might carry the resilient Finns all the way to the medal games, but that requires timing the best game for the quarter finals. The opponent there will likely be one of the tougher teams after another 2nd or 3rd place finnish in the group games. I'll love to see Tuomo Ruutu bring it all on the ice again like in the last Euro hockey tour match against Russia. Better to aim the crushing checks to the time when there's no giants like Artyuchin in the rink or prepare for a punchbag moment again..
The rest of the teams will remain in a surprise spoiler role with Denmark and Swizerland having the most punch. None of them will carry on to the semifinals this year. In general, this is again going to be the best hockey in the larger rink this year and definitely a tournament worth watching. With national pride to boost, naturally. Go Finland!
2011/04/27
2011/04/21
It's playoff time!
I planned to go on and analyze the playoff pairs before the big games started. Here I am, however, a week late and some reality adjustment wiser. Nevertheless, here I go. First round prognosis and some random comments as dressing.
Let's follow the sun and start from the East. WSH-NYR. Rangers have some guts and they've played playoff hockey since March. Grinding away to the last game, they managed to get lucky and get in. Exhausted, yes, but still have to be pretty pumped up too. Capitals knew they'd be in the playoffs for a long time already. They have started the preparations early and changed their style to more defencive minded. The big guns haven't gone anywhere and keep on blasting the opponents away when given the chance. Therefore, Rangers have to fall in this series. It's been even so far, but already 3-1 for Washington. Next game will be a blowout, 5-1 for Capitals, Ovechkin popping up a notch and scoring a couple.
Philly-Sabres, that's an interesting matchup. Based on early season it would have been murder, Flyers taking it easily 4-0. Now it's 2-2 after poor regular season finish for Philadelphia and a great one for Buffalo. Ryan Miller has stolen couple of games for Sabres already. Still, that's going to end. Flyers are just way too strong to contain by a average lineup and a great goalie. They'll add a notch on the nastiness too, now that Miller's been denying the conventional scoring. Philly takes the next two and advances to second round.
Boston-Montreal, a classic. These teams have played each other so much over the years that they have a pretty good scouting report each on how to play the opponent. Boston has been very solid all year, Montreal has improved from last seasons. In general this should still be much more biased for Boston. Somehow Montreal has been able to dominate early. However, after getting the crucial win on the game 3, Boston will discover its lost confidence and sweep the rest of the series. Carey Price will turn human again and won't be able to steal the show.
PIT-TBL was another very interesting setup. With Malkin and Crosby well and in the lineup, Penguins would have ended in the finals for sure. Now, it seems like a miracle that they finished so high in the standings on regular season and keep on playing great in the playoffs. Fleury gives the edge in goal for Pittsburgh every night, but the offence is based on sub-50 point players only. Hard working, grinding style seems to work well against the Lightning and Penguins are one win away from advancing. Tampa has had only Martin St. Louis deliver on expected, and extremely high, level. Other guys seem to have dropped the ball (puck?) somehow. Lecavalier and Stamkos have the last moment to pick up their game if they plan to continue this season. I would have picked Lightning to take this one earlier, but now I can't see it happening. If Crosby returns on the second round, he's going to be all over the sports news like never before.
Passing the middle and moving to the West. East may be more of a playoff experience, low scoring, tight, grinding games. West has the entertainment factor of less balanced, hollywood-like, goal scoring fests.
Vancouver-Chicago. What a nightmare reward for destroying the competition for the whole year in Vancouver. Defending champs sure are dangerous, no matter how they played the and of the season. Lucky to be in, nothing to lose -attitude just adds up in the pressure towards Canucks. My guess was, and still is, that Canucks can take this series and go really far this year. The team is just so solid on all positions. Chicago could have gone far, but not with this team agains them on the first round. From players, Luongo will take over and Sedin twins will find the groove and possibly take the playoff scoring 1-2 spots.
SJ-LA, the two non-traditional, Californian hockey teams facing each other. What a setup. And good for the environment, not much travelling. Here I'd have said that San Jose takes this easily 4-0 with LA losing its top two forwards on the last stretch of regular season. Kings have really fought back courageously, but can't stop the obvious. Sharks will rip them to pieces on the last two and surf to the next round. Veteran leaders Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau will pick up their game and carry the younger Sharks to the next challenge.
Detroit-Phoenix, well this was the easiest to pick. Detroit has just been too good this year to even stumble with the Coyotes. Wouldn't have given them the sweep, but now that's the reality. Detroit sure has the team to go far this year, again. Datsuyk is just too good and if Zetterberg returns healthy, they'll have some serious added punch to beware.
Ducks-Predators is a matchup between offence and defence. I'm calling offence and Ducks going forward. They've become maybe the most entertaining team in the league on the second half of the season and I sure would like them to go far. Nashville just hasn't got the goods to match. Average scoring, great defence and goaltending, they may be enough, but won't carry over to the third round. Ducks might surprise everyone in the league with 7-5 wins. I just love to see Teemu Selänne shoving the pucks to the net like he's 20 again. Hopefully it's another good run for him too and a great motivation to keep on playing. Pretty big numbers on the backs of guys to be passed next on the all time scoring lists. Hall of famers all. Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf and Bobby Ryan will regroup on the next games and start really spreading fear to all the rest of the West.
I'll end this long post here and try to return with more foresight before it's too late. That being in the beginning of the second round, at latest.
Let's follow the sun and start from the East. WSH-NYR. Rangers have some guts and they've played playoff hockey since March. Grinding away to the last game, they managed to get lucky and get in. Exhausted, yes, but still have to be pretty pumped up too. Capitals knew they'd be in the playoffs for a long time already. They have started the preparations early and changed their style to more defencive minded. The big guns haven't gone anywhere and keep on blasting the opponents away when given the chance. Therefore, Rangers have to fall in this series. It's been even so far, but already 3-1 for Washington. Next game will be a blowout, 5-1 for Capitals, Ovechkin popping up a notch and scoring a couple.
Philly-Sabres, that's an interesting matchup. Based on early season it would have been murder, Flyers taking it easily 4-0. Now it's 2-2 after poor regular season finish for Philadelphia and a great one for Buffalo. Ryan Miller has stolen couple of games for Sabres already. Still, that's going to end. Flyers are just way too strong to contain by a average lineup and a great goalie. They'll add a notch on the nastiness too, now that Miller's been denying the conventional scoring. Philly takes the next two and advances to second round.
Boston-Montreal, a classic. These teams have played each other so much over the years that they have a pretty good scouting report each on how to play the opponent. Boston has been very solid all year, Montreal has improved from last seasons. In general this should still be much more biased for Boston. Somehow Montreal has been able to dominate early. However, after getting the crucial win on the game 3, Boston will discover its lost confidence and sweep the rest of the series. Carey Price will turn human again and won't be able to steal the show.
PIT-TBL was another very interesting setup. With Malkin and Crosby well and in the lineup, Penguins would have ended in the finals for sure. Now, it seems like a miracle that they finished so high in the standings on regular season and keep on playing great in the playoffs. Fleury gives the edge in goal for Pittsburgh every night, but the offence is based on sub-50 point players only. Hard working, grinding style seems to work well against the Lightning and Penguins are one win away from advancing. Tampa has had only Martin St. Louis deliver on expected, and extremely high, level. Other guys seem to have dropped the ball (puck?) somehow. Lecavalier and Stamkos have the last moment to pick up their game if they plan to continue this season. I would have picked Lightning to take this one earlier, but now I can't see it happening. If Crosby returns on the second round, he's going to be all over the sports news like never before.
Passing the middle and moving to the West. East may be more of a playoff experience, low scoring, tight, grinding games. West has the entertainment factor of less balanced, hollywood-like, goal scoring fests.
Vancouver-Chicago. What a nightmare reward for destroying the competition for the whole year in Vancouver. Defending champs sure are dangerous, no matter how they played the and of the season. Lucky to be in, nothing to lose -attitude just adds up in the pressure towards Canucks. My guess was, and still is, that Canucks can take this series and go really far this year. The team is just so solid on all positions. Chicago could have gone far, but not with this team agains them on the first round. From players, Luongo will take over and Sedin twins will find the groove and possibly take the playoff scoring 1-2 spots.
SJ-LA, the two non-traditional, Californian hockey teams facing each other. What a setup. And good for the environment, not much travelling. Here I'd have said that San Jose takes this easily 4-0 with LA losing its top two forwards on the last stretch of regular season. Kings have really fought back courageously, but can't stop the obvious. Sharks will rip them to pieces on the last two and surf to the next round. Veteran leaders Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau will pick up their game and carry the younger Sharks to the next challenge.
Detroit-Phoenix, well this was the easiest to pick. Detroit has just been too good this year to even stumble with the Coyotes. Wouldn't have given them the sweep, but now that's the reality. Detroit sure has the team to go far this year, again. Datsuyk is just too good and if Zetterberg returns healthy, they'll have some serious added punch to beware.
Ducks-Predators is a matchup between offence and defence. I'm calling offence and Ducks going forward. They've become maybe the most entertaining team in the league on the second half of the season and I sure would like them to go far. Nashville just hasn't got the goods to match. Average scoring, great defence and goaltending, they may be enough, but won't carry over to the third round. Ducks might surprise everyone in the league with 7-5 wins. I just love to see Teemu Selänne shoving the pucks to the net like he's 20 again. Hopefully it's another good run for him too and a great motivation to keep on playing. Pretty big numbers on the backs of guys to be passed next on the all time scoring lists. Hall of famers all. Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf and Bobby Ryan will regroup on the next games and start really spreading fear to all the rest of the West.
I'll end this long post here and try to return with more foresight before it's too late. That being in the beginning of the second round, at latest.
2011/04/04
Regular season heroics, the MVP
Ended up thinking about the MVP honours and decided to share a few words on that too. There are quite a few angles to look at this, but eventually we're often seeing this trophy going to the biggest scorers in the league. Flashy, celebrated, easy to remember moments. Well, there's other trophies for just that. The Art Ross for scoring title and Rocket Richard for most goals. MVP should have deeper justification criteria. Some thoughts will follow..
Goalies, anyone? Hasek got the Hart twice, for significant heroics, Theodore once for maybe a little less. Some guys in the past decades too, but in general it's been a trophy for the players.
Defencemen then? Chris Pronger is the only one since Bobby Orr to get this. And Pronger at his best sure was a dominating player on the ice. One could argue for Ray Bourgue, Niklas Lidström and such greats. Eventually, were talking about the most important forward here.
Defensive forwards? Top plus-minus, most steals, blocks, checks, penalty killing? Naah, we're really talking about another scoring title here. Which is okay, but on the other hand, we could spread the criteria a bit more. Even Pavel Datsuyk hasn't won this and he's about as complete package as it gets on both offence and defence. All-time. Maybe if he'd still have some crushing checking ability, he would be loved all around.
Last years' hottest, Ovechkin and Crosby have already tasted this prize. Something tells me that these guys will have their names on the vase some more times in the years to come. The Sedin twins seem to be taking over the scoring department with speed, so that surname should appear on the trophy a few more times.
Ovien and Crosby are out this season. Ovie punised for playing more defence and Crosby for the unfortunate concussion. Sidney Crosby would have taken this honour this season without a question if he'd been able to play full season. He would have actually beaten last decade's records on the scoring categories too. Let's hope he comes back strong for the next season.
So, who's going to take it this year? My guess is Daniel Sedin. He'll win the Art Ross with ease and he's really been solid all year long. Doesn't matter that he's playing on the most complete team of the season and with a fantastic line with brother Hank and Ryan Kesler. All of the guys are having tremendous seasons.
Some might throw Martin St. Louis in the mix. And why not. He's definitely most points per pound and has really again showed it's a skill game today in NHL. He's benefitted of the awesome linemate Steven Stamkos, who has somehow dimmed down on the second half of the season. In comparison to the brightest stars, of course.. it's tough to get criticism for scoring "only" about a point per game.
Corey Perry has been mentioned. He'll win the Rocket, and has to give big thanks to great linemates Getzlaf and Ryan. Another impact player on an impact line.
Well, apart of these obvious candidates, some credit should go to the "lonely wolves" department. Not that these guys don't have great linemates, but maybe not in the same category as the aforementioned.
Anyway, Jarome Iginla, another solid year, scoring, checking, fighting, really leading by example. Calgary won't make it to the playoffs, so maybe his stock falls a notch on that. Not his fault, though..
What about Henrik Zetterberg? Another good year on points, but really digging deep to do everything on the ice to make the team win. If Datsuyk would have played healthy all year, They'd both be in the mix for Hart.
Young guns, Toews, Kopitar, Richards, leading their teams as captains, scoring massive amounts of points and really showing that they are today's premier players. Maybe in the following years these guys will find another gear and tear the place apart.
And finally, what about the "old gun", Teemu Selänne. There isn't that many 40-year-olds, playing in the second line of a mediocre team that score over point per game. There actually isn't anyone, nor hardly ever has been. One can just stand in amazement and hope for a sequel. Truly the best Finnish player ever and one of the greatest all time in the history of NHL. And one cannot undermine the effect of Selänne's heroics to the Anaheim team just sitting on the better side of playoff bubble. Go Teemu!
Hopefully the selecting writers will expand their horizon a bit and also consider the heros just outside the brightest spotlight!
Goalies, anyone? Hasek got the Hart twice, for significant heroics, Theodore once for maybe a little less. Some guys in the past decades too, but in general it's been a trophy for the players.
Defencemen then? Chris Pronger is the only one since Bobby Orr to get this. And Pronger at his best sure was a dominating player on the ice. One could argue for Ray Bourgue, Niklas Lidström and such greats. Eventually, were talking about the most important forward here.
Defensive forwards? Top plus-minus, most steals, blocks, checks, penalty killing? Naah, we're really talking about another scoring title here. Which is okay, but on the other hand, we could spread the criteria a bit more. Even Pavel Datsuyk hasn't won this and he's about as complete package as it gets on both offence and defence. All-time. Maybe if he'd still have some crushing checking ability, he would be loved all around.
Last years' hottest, Ovechkin and Crosby have already tasted this prize. Something tells me that these guys will have their names on the vase some more times in the years to come. The Sedin twins seem to be taking over the scoring department with speed, so that surname should appear on the trophy a few more times.
Ovien and Crosby are out this season. Ovie punised for playing more defence and Crosby for the unfortunate concussion. Sidney Crosby would have taken this honour this season without a question if he'd been able to play full season. He would have actually beaten last decade's records on the scoring categories too. Let's hope he comes back strong for the next season.
So, who's going to take it this year? My guess is Daniel Sedin. He'll win the Art Ross with ease and he's really been solid all year long. Doesn't matter that he's playing on the most complete team of the season and with a fantastic line with brother Hank and Ryan Kesler. All of the guys are having tremendous seasons.
Some might throw Martin St. Louis in the mix. And why not. He's definitely most points per pound and has really again showed it's a skill game today in NHL. He's benefitted of the awesome linemate Steven Stamkos, who has somehow dimmed down on the second half of the season. In comparison to the brightest stars, of course.. it's tough to get criticism for scoring "only" about a point per game.
Corey Perry has been mentioned. He'll win the Rocket, and has to give big thanks to great linemates Getzlaf and Ryan. Another impact player on an impact line.
Well, apart of these obvious candidates, some credit should go to the "lonely wolves" department. Not that these guys don't have great linemates, but maybe not in the same category as the aforementioned.
Anyway, Jarome Iginla, another solid year, scoring, checking, fighting, really leading by example. Calgary won't make it to the playoffs, so maybe his stock falls a notch on that. Not his fault, though..
What about Henrik Zetterberg? Another good year on points, but really digging deep to do everything on the ice to make the team win. If Datsuyk would have played healthy all year, They'd both be in the mix for Hart.
Young guns, Toews, Kopitar, Richards, leading their teams as captains, scoring massive amounts of points and really showing that they are today's premier players. Maybe in the following years these guys will find another gear and tear the place apart.
And finally, what about the "old gun", Teemu Selänne. There isn't that many 40-year-olds, playing in the second line of a mediocre team that score over point per game. There actually isn't anyone, nor hardly ever has been. One can just stand in amazement and hope for a sequel. Truly the best Finnish player ever and one of the greatest all time in the history of NHL. And one cannot undermine the effect of Selänne's heroics to the Anaheim team just sitting on the better side of playoff bubble. Go Teemu!
Hopefully the selecting writers will expand their horizon a bit and also consider the heros just outside the brightest spotlight!
The playoffs before playoffs
Back again, after a while of just observing the progress of the season. This time, few games remaining before the playoffs are set up, is probably the toughest stretch of the season for some. I'm naturally referring to the teams on the playoff bubble, fighting for their life for each victory, peeking at the scoreboards on other games while drawing deep breaths between shifts. Worn out, bruised, tired and scared of being left out of the playoffs after a long season. The finesse on these games may not be the best of the year, but the spirit definitely equals the actual playoffs. Sometimes even exceeds it. The difference of getting a short breather to regroup for the playoff battles and seeing 82 games played in vain, is massive.
We've seen already a few teams clearly destined for playoffs just deteriorate on the last stretch and fade out. Some have clawed their way back to the top eight. Three teams still have their hopes up for sneaking in with stellar finish and some stumbling by the teams ahead of them. Unfortunately for the spectators, these teams don't play the ones they're trying to catch anymore this regular season and thus the final playoff picture is settled in separated games.
Carolina Hurricanes are trying to catch the Rangers, Sabres or even Canadiens. However, they lose to all of those in tied points and remain a one win behind. Even with their strong push of late, making it seems unlikely. If they'd beaten Buffalo on last night's game, situation would be brighter. Prognosis: Jussi Jokinen and Joni Pitkänen will join Finnish national team for the World championships.
Calgary and Dallas are both chasing Chicago and Anaheim for West's last playoff spot. However, Calgary is one point behind, but has two games less to play. And this pretty much rules them out. Too bad, they really had a strong stretch just a short while ago. Run out of gas eventually, it seems.
Dallas has it only slightly better, trailing by three points and having as many games remaining as Chicago. Four must wins and hoping Chicago will stutter. Unlikely, I'd say. Last year's Stanley cup champions are not likely giving up on the chance for a repeat. Anaheim is pretty much tied in this mix, but has also played very good hockey of late. Big thanks of that goes to Finnish duo of Selänne and Koivu, who seem to really enjoy playing together late in their careers.
In the end, I believe the top eight is already set in both conferences. What remains to be battled is the final positioning within those. Some teams may still want to play for home ice advantage or more preferred first round opponent. In the East, the top spot is still up for grabs for at least a couple of teams.
And well, yes Toronto is still theoretically in the mix, but would need to win the last three and not have Rangers to have a single point or Carolina more than two out of their last three games. Not going to happen.
Anyway, this has definitely been one of the most equally matched seasons ever. For long stretches the teams went on par with each others. Only in the last ten games some teams kept on going while others finally gave up a bit. No last night drama this year, but a very long period of fiercely battled games. Will this play in the bag of some teams that have had the high note for the whole season, not having to worry about making it into the playoffs? Or vice versa, will the already playoff moded teams surprise on the first round by being ready for the grind? To be seen, soon enough.
Looking forward for the opportunity to analyze the actual first round matchups.
We've seen already a few teams clearly destined for playoffs just deteriorate on the last stretch and fade out. Some have clawed their way back to the top eight. Three teams still have their hopes up for sneaking in with stellar finish and some stumbling by the teams ahead of them. Unfortunately for the spectators, these teams don't play the ones they're trying to catch anymore this regular season and thus the final playoff picture is settled in separated games.
Carolina Hurricanes are trying to catch the Rangers, Sabres or even Canadiens. However, they lose to all of those in tied points and remain a one win behind. Even with their strong push of late, making it seems unlikely. If they'd beaten Buffalo on last night's game, situation would be brighter. Prognosis: Jussi Jokinen and Joni Pitkänen will join Finnish national team for the World championships.
Calgary and Dallas are both chasing Chicago and Anaheim for West's last playoff spot. However, Calgary is one point behind, but has two games less to play. And this pretty much rules them out. Too bad, they really had a strong stretch just a short while ago. Run out of gas eventually, it seems.
Dallas has it only slightly better, trailing by three points and having as many games remaining as Chicago. Four must wins and hoping Chicago will stutter. Unlikely, I'd say. Last year's Stanley cup champions are not likely giving up on the chance for a repeat. Anaheim is pretty much tied in this mix, but has also played very good hockey of late. Big thanks of that goes to Finnish duo of Selänne and Koivu, who seem to really enjoy playing together late in their careers.
In the end, I believe the top eight is already set in both conferences. What remains to be battled is the final positioning within those. Some teams may still want to play for home ice advantage or more preferred first round opponent. In the East, the top spot is still up for grabs for at least a couple of teams.
And well, yes Toronto is still theoretically in the mix, but would need to win the last three and not have Rangers to have a single point or Carolina more than two out of their last three games. Not going to happen.
Anyway, this has definitely been one of the most equally matched seasons ever. For long stretches the teams went on par with each others. Only in the last ten games some teams kept on going while others finally gave up a bit. No last night drama this year, but a very long period of fiercely battled games. Will this play in the bag of some teams that have had the high note for the whole season, not having to worry about making it into the playoffs? Or vice versa, will the already playoff moded teams surprise on the first round by being ready for the grind? To be seen, soon enough.
Looking forward for the opportunity to analyze the actual first round matchups.
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