The season is half baked with most teams reaching the 40 game plateau. For some teams it's actually fully baked by now. But anyway, it's time to see where we are with some words on clubs that seem to fill up the headlines this season.
The good teams of 2011-2012 are mostly as expected. Now that Minnesota has had its honeymoon and heading back to the familiar conference basement, there's just the familiar packs like Rangers, Bruins, Flyers, Canucks, Red Wings and Sharks sitting on top of the conferences. Only the disastrous first half by Washington Capitals has produced a quirk in Florida Panthers hovering on the top three in Eastern conference. The funny fact of the day is that the whole Southeast division is below zero in goal difference. The least bad team will make it to the playoffs.
At the moment my money goes for an encore by Boston Bruins. That team is just so talented, deep and tough that it will take a massive effort to squeeze four wins from their hands in a playoff series. In East, the biggest challenger was Pittsburgh, until they ended up losing most of their top tier talent to injuries. Maybe, if the Penguins regroup early enough to make it to the playoffs, they still have a chance for an upset. Philly could match Boston in a brawl series, but don't have the depth in hockey skills to win in a fair game. Rangers have a strong tradition of failing in the end of the season and while they look good now, I don't see them as a contender.
The finals opponent from West will likely be Vancouver Canucks for another try and miss. If they get surprised in the battle for Western crown, there's Chicago Blackhawks to take on the Bruins. That, too, would be a brilliantly entertaining series for the Cup.
It's great to see some spark on the former powerhouses like Ottawa and New Jersey. Maybe this is a sign of another push for the spot in the premier teams' shortlist.
St. Louis Blues are the black horse on this race. They have surprised everyone under new coach Ken Hitchcock by having a very long stretch of hard working and very productive hockey. If they can carry this momentum all the way through the season, who knows how far they can go. Compared to previous years, a playoff spot would already be counted as a success.
The second half of the season will still show us if the disappointments in Washington and Los Angeles can be turned to a sure playoff spot and even a run for the Cup. Hopefully so, both teams are way too talented to not play at their full potential for the fans of hockey.
In the bottom of the standings you can find the teams everyone expected to end up there. Columbus, Edmonton, Calgary, NY Islanders and Carolina are just that bad currently. And out of these, only Edmonton has some justification in being there with its roster full of kids fresh up from junior leagues. They have a bright future unless they lose the core of the team, but the rest of this pack is just sad.
Deep down in the darkness we can also find two potentially great teams in Anaheim Ducks and Tampa Bay Lightning. Both have tremendous talent in their rosters, should have decent supporting cast for the superstars and even have proven goaltending to back it all up. Anaheim even changed their coach to Bruce Boudreau, who had a stellar record from his last position. Despite of all this, both seem to be doomed for the season unless they can limit the losses to half a dozen for the second half.
Next time to look at the standings will be near the regular season end. The last 10 games or so are always a thrill. And naturally a perfect time to show some foresight.
Showing posts with label playoffs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label playoffs. Show all posts
2012/01/10
2011/05/02
Second round, second thoughts
So, I missed the window to write before teams faced off for the second round starters. Apparently my crystal ball needs some polishing, since I have to admit I would have put my money on somewhat different results.
WAS-TB, even though Tampa has a pretty good team and an experienced and solid goaltender, I would have picked Washington to take this matchup. It's still possible after losing the first two, but the Capitals sure made it hard for themselves. Based on the games so far, it actually seems that the Lightning has better nerves and more will to fight. Now I can't see why Tampa Bay would let go of their spot on the third round. They're even starting to show signs of being able to take a shot at the Cup in the end.
PHI-BOS, I still believe Philly is up to the task of upending the Bruins. The teams are quite evenly matched on the ice, but the goaltending currently makes the difference. If the Flyers can settle down on one keeper and not bench him after a few soft goals, they'll be able to go for the comeback. They have way more firepower in the forwards and even Tim Thomas cannot stop the onslaught. If the Flyers get one goaltender's confidence back, they'll go far this year. Ih Philly can win the game two, they'll take over from there and go on to win the series.
VAN-NSH, It's hard to imagine any reason why Vancouver wouldn't take this one easily. Okay, Nashville has a great goalkeeper in Pekka Rinne and a very organized defence, but still.. Luongo is very good on Canucks' goal and the rest of the lineup is just the best in the league this season. Vancouver is just about to shake off the playoff jitters and will take off for the easy disposal of the Predators and go eventually all the way to Cup finals. The Sedin twins will also wake up and start lighting the lamp on regular basis.
SJ-DET, I would have given one of the games in San Jose to Detroit, but they didn't seem to agree. Now it's two to nothing and Detroit must win the next game or they're out. This is a very even series again, and I believe the Wings have enough experience to make one comeback. Thay'll take the next two behind Datsuyk and Zetterberg and whoever wins the fifth, will also advance to the conference finals. If I have to choose, it's going to be San Jose. They're pretty much on par in the experience now, but still younger and more fresh. Niemi won the cup in goal last season, so he can stay relaxed while Howard has all the pressure as a young goalie carrying the famed franchise.
WAS-TB, even though Tampa has a pretty good team and an experienced and solid goaltender, I would have picked Washington to take this matchup. It's still possible after losing the first two, but the Capitals sure made it hard for themselves. Based on the games so far, it actually seems that the Lightning has better nerves and more will to fight. Now I can't see why Tampa Bay would let go of their spot on the third round. They're even starting to show signs of being able to take a shot at the Cup in the end.
PHI-BOS, I still believe Philly is up to the task of upending the Bruins. The teams are quite evenly matched on the ice, but the goaltending currently makes the difference. If the Flyers can settle down on one keeper and not bench him after a few soft goals, they'll be able to go for the comeback. They have way more firepower in the forwards and even Tim Thomas cannot stop the onslaught. If the Flyers get one goaltender's confidence back, they'll go far this year. Ih Philly can win the game two, they'll take over from there and go on to win the series.
VAN-NSH, It's hard to imagine any reason why Vancouver wouldn't take this one easily. Okay, Nashville has a great goalkeeper in Pekka Rinne and a very organized defence, but still.. Luongo is very good on Canucks' goal and the rest of the lineup is just the best in the league this season. Vancouver is just about to shake off the playoff jitters and will take off for the easy disposal of the Predators and go eventually all the way to Cup finals. The Sedin twins will also wake up and start lighting the lamp on regular basis.
SJ-DET, I would have given one of the games in San Jose to Detroit, but they didn't seem to agree. Now it's two to nothing and Detroit must win the next game or they're out. This is a very even series again, and I believe the Wings have enough experience to make one comeback. Thay'll take the next two behind Datsuyk and Zetterberg and whoever wins the fifth, will also advance to the conference finals. If I have to choose, it's going to be San Jose. They're pretty much on par in the experience now, but still younger and more fresh. Niemi won the cup in goal last season, so he can stay relaxed while Howard has all the pressure as a young goalie carrying the famed franchise.
2011/04/04
The playoffs before playoffs
Back again, after a while of just observing the progress of the season. This time, few games remaining before the playoffs are set up, is probably the toughest stretch of the season for some. I'm naturally referring to the teams on the playoff bubble, fighting for their life for each victory, peeking at the scoreboards on other games while drawing deep breaths between shifts. Worn out, bruised, tired and scared of being left out of the playoffs after a long season. The finesse on these games may not be the best of the year, but the spirit definitely equals the actual playoffs. Sometimes even exceeds it. The difference of getting a short breather to regroup for the playoff battles and seeing 82 games played in vain, is massive.
We've seen already a few teams clearly destined for playoffs just deteriorate on the last stretch and fade out. Some have clawed their way back to the top eight. Three teams still have their hopes up for sneaking in with stellar finish and some stumbling by the teams ahead of them. Unfortunately for the spectators, these teams don't play the ones they're trying to catch anymore this regular season and thus the final playoff picture is settled in separated games.
Carolina Hurricanes are trying to catch the Rangers, Sabres or even Canadiens. However, they lose to all of those in tied points and remain a one win behind. Even with their strong push of late, making it seems unlikely. If they'd beaten Buffalo on last night's game, situation would be brighter. Prognosis: Jussi Jokinen and Joni Pitkänen will join Finnish national team for the World championships.
Calgary and Dallas are both chasing Chicago and Anaheim for West's last playoff spot. However, Calgary is one point behind, but has two games less to play. And this pretty much rules them out. Too bad, they really had a strong stretch just a short while ago. Run out of gas eventually, it seems.
Dallas has it only slightly better, trailing by three points and having as many games remaining as Chicago. Four must wins and hoping Chicago will stutter. Unlikely, I'd say. Last year's Stanley cup champions are not likely giving up on the chance for a repeat. Anaheim is pretty much tied in this mix, but has also played very good hockey of late. Big thanks of that goes to Finnish duo of Selänne and Koivu, who seem to really enjoy playing together late in their careers.
In the end, I believe the top eight is already set in both conferences. What remains to be battled is the final positioning within those. Some teams may still want to play for home ice advantage or more preferred first round opponent. In the East, the top spot is still up for grabs for at least a couple of teams.
And well, yes Toronto is still theoretically in the mix, but would need to win the last three and not have Rangers to have a single point or Carolina more than two out of their last three games. Not going to happen.
Anyway, this has definitely been one of the most equally matched seasons ever. For long stretches the teams went on par with each others. Only in the last ten games some teams kept on going while others finally gave up a bit. No last night drama this year, but a very long period of fiercely battled games. Will this play in the bag of some teams that have had the high note for the whole season, not having to worry about making it into the playoffs? Or vice versa, will the already playoff moded teams surprise on the first round by being ready for the grind? To be seen, soon enough.
Looking forward for the opportunity to analyze the actual first round matchups.
We've seen already a few teams clearly destined for playoffs just deteriorate on the last stretch and fade out. Some have clawed their way back to the top eight. Three teams still have their hopes up for sneaking in with stellar finish and some stumbling by the teams ahead of them. Unfortunately for the spectators, these teams don't play the ones they're trying to catch anymore this regular season and thus the final playoff picture is settled in separated games.
Carolina Hurricanes are trying to catch the Rangers, Sabres or even Canadiens. However, they lose to all of those in tied points and remain a one win behind. Even with their strong push of late, making it seems unlikely. If they'd beaten Buffalo on last night's game, situation would be brighter. Prognosis: Jussi Jokinen and Joni Pitkänen will join Finnish national team for the World championships.
Calgary and Dallas are both chasing Chicago and Anaheim for West's last playoff spot. However, Calgary is one point behind, but has two games less to play. And this pretty much rules them out. Too bad, they really had a strong stretch just a short while ago. Run out of gas eventually, it seems.
Dallas has it only slightly better, trailing by three points and having as many games remaining as Chicago. Four must wins and hoping Chicago will stutter. Unlikely, I'd say. Last year's Stanley cup champions are not likely giving up on the chance for a repeat. Anaheim is pretty much tied in this mix, but has also played very good hockey of late. Big thanks of that goes to Finnish duo of Selänne and Koivu, who seem to really enjoy playing together late in their careers.
In the end, I believe the top eight is already set in both conferences. What remains to be battled is the final positioning within those. Some teams may still want to play for home ice advantage or more preferred first round opponent. In the East, the top spot is still up for grabs for at least a couple of teams.
And well, yes Toronto is still theoretically in the mix, but would need to win the last three and not have Rangers to have a single point or Carolina more than two out of their last three games. Not going to happen.
Anyway, this has definitely been one of the most equally matched seasons ever. For long stretches the teams went on par with each others. Only in the last ten games some teams kept on going while others finally gave up a bit. No last night drama this year, but a very long period of fiercely battled games. Will this play in the bag of some teams that have had the high note for the whole season, not having to worry about making it into the playoffs? Or vice versa, will the already playoff moded teams surprise on the first round by being ready for the grind? To be seen, soon enough.
Looking forward for the opportunity to analyze the actual first round matchups.
2010/05/03
NHL Playoff cliches and reality
Finally, the regular season is over and the real tests are ahead in the NHL playoffs. Like always, the last few rounds of regular season have been really intensive and full of desperation for the teams on the playoff bubble. It actually took all 82 and a deciding overtime to separate finally send Flyers in and leave Rangers out. Very movie-like script, but it really doesn't get much better.
Before the playoffs it was again time for the journalists to reach to their bags of cliches. Washington Capitals were a perfect ground to create (read reuse) more columns and stories on. The classic pieces of wisdom included the "good production in regular season does not guarantee success in playoffs" and "defence and goaltending will be crucial" as well as "veteran leadership and experience may tilt the scale for underdogs". Same old, same old.
Well, Capitals' goaltending was average, not bad but not excellent either. They were in the middle of the pack on that, but lead the scoring by increduible 0.6 goals per game more than the second best team, Vancouver Canucks. Defence was solid and super productive in the attack zone, lead by Mike Green's heroics. A man, who must be seriously annoying person to be left out of Olympics and be benched in the end of regular season while being by far the best offensive d-man in the league for the second year in a row. Oh yeah, but the playoffs are a different story, right.
The series against Montreal Canadiens was scheduled to be 4-0 with Washington walking over their opponents easily. Then the Capitals went the distance to prove the analysts' cliche-filled prognosis right. How annoying, the most exiting team out on the first round. Not meeting the Penguins in the conference finals. Alex Ovechkin not raising the cup in the end. Nothing, just an early summer vacation.
Judging from the yearly upsets and surprises and drawing from the "old wisdom", it seams that a hockey team is somewhat human in nature. It has a mental state that is vulnerable under high stress and expectations. It's hard to imagine that one team would consist of only the players who choke in the tough spot, but somehow the losing mentality gets contagious and the whole team just falls apart. With this state some statistically improbable numbers start to appear, like 3 goals in 140 shots, not many goals from guys who scored almost a hundred in regular season. Team spirit indeed.
Well, maybe there's some experience behind the worn out cliches for playoff hockey. It sure will be interesting to see how Montreal now does against another young and blazing team in Pittsburgh and who will eventually take the cup. It's been very evenly matched so far, which is always good for the fans. Hard to pick one team over others at this point.
And let's see a bright side on the collapse of Capitals. We'll be seeing some Ovechkin-Semin magic in the international level on the upcoming World championships. Surprisingly high caliber players on the tournament for an Olympic year.
Before the playoffs it was again time for the journalists to reach to their bags of cliches. Washington Capitals were a perfect ground to create (read reuse) more columns and stories on. The classic pieces of wisdom included the "good production in regular season does not guarantee success in playoffs" and "defence and goaltending will be crucial" as well as "veteran leadership and experience may tilt the scale for underdogs". Same old, same old.
Well, Capitals' goaltending was average, not bad but not excellent either. They were in the middle of the pack on that, but lead the scoring by increduible 0.6 goals per game more than the second best team, Vancouver Canucks. Defence was solid and super productive in the attack zone, lead by Mike Green's heroics. A man, who must be seriously annoying person to be left out of Olympics and be benched in the end of regular season while being by far the best offensive d-man in the league for the second year in a row. Oh yeah, but the playoffs are a different story, right.
The series against Montreal Canadiens was scheduled to be 4-0 with Washington walking over their opponents easily. Then the Capitals went the distance to prove the analysts' cliche-filled prognosis right. How annoying, the most exiting team out on the first round. Not meeting the Penguins in the conference finals. Alex Ovechkin not raising the cup in the end. Nothing, just an early summer vacation.
Judging from the yearly upsets and surprises and drawing from the "old wisdom", it seams that a hockey team is somewhat human in nature. It has a mental state that is vulnerable under high stress and expectations. It's hard to imagine that one team would consist of only the players who choke in the tough spot, but somehow the losing mentality gets contagious and the whole team just falls apart. With this state some statistically improbable numbers start to appear, like 3 goals in 140 shots, not many goals from guys who scored almost a hundred in regular season. Team spirit indeed.
Well, maybe there's some experience behind the worn out cliches for playoff hockey. It sure will be interesting to see how Montreal now does against another young and blazing team in Pittsburgh and who will eventually take the cup. It's been very evenly matched so far, which is always good for the fans. Hard to pick one team over others at this point.
And let's see a bright side on the collapse of Capitals. We'll be seeing some Ovechkin-Semin magic in the international level on the upcoming World championships. Surprisingly high caliber players on the tournament for an Olympic year.
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