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2012/01/17

Semi-Random All-Stars 2012

It's time for the yearly event of televised pond hockey in form of NHL All-Star game. This year it's hosted by Ottawa and luckily the Senators have amazed everyone with solid play for the first half of this season. Against all odds, the host team's boys can proudly participate in the rink instead of humbly filling the water bottles for true stars.

Talking about true stars, I need to rant some about the guys that somehow got left out of the ceremonies. The screaming error here is Anaheim's Corey Perry taking the spot that by any standard belongs to the amazing Teemu Selänne. Perry was superb in the second half of last season and got credits for that. However, this season he has been one of the young bulls watching the old man beat them in any category: points, consistency and heart. Come on, NHL, Selänne is breaking all the records in 40+ forwards' history and still hangs in the top-15 in league scoring race. Need to point out that Perry is 6 points behing and -15 lower than Selänne. What a failure.

-- Correction: At least according to ESPN:s Pierre LeBrun, Selänne was asked to join but refused. Too bad. Hats off to Teemu anyway on his point per game pace and all!

Maybe this whole selection should reflect the season heroics a bit more. Now it seems rather arbitrary. Just to point out a few more flukes..

How did you get Patrick Kane ahead of so many forwards that have him beaten in scoring? He's a thrilling player, but Chicago alrady has Hossa and Toews. Guys like Anze Kopitar, James Neal or rejuvenated Patrick Elias should have been considered before Kane. Maybe it's the thrill of seeing him pull off some moves in the shootout competition, who knows..

And how on earth did you guys come up with Logan Couture? He's having a mediocre season in San Jose and should be considered only after perennial All-Stars Marleau and Thornton have refused to come over. Ridiculous!

Ovechkin probably got his ticket from injured Bäckström. Maybe that's the case with a few others here too.

And guys.. you never leave Niklas Lidström out of the All-Stars lineup. Never!

-- Correction: Again, according to ESPN, Lidström requested to pass the festival. Maybe he's had enough of those already to know he's pretty good in the game. Leave it for the kids.

Finally, when you take a look at the goaltenders, you see that the selection board got tired of picking and just took some random guys after Thomas, Lundqvist, Quick and Howard, who all deserve the recognition. Elliott has been fantastic as a backup. But if you started taking backup goalies, you should have gone with Tuukka Rask, who has the best stats in the league after 15 games. Carey Price? Who is this guy to keep getting the love from everyone without much proof to base it on? There's a dozen goalies that have had better seasons so far! Workhorses Fleury, Kiprusoff and Rinne. Solid number ones Niemi, Smith and Luongo. Just to name a few.

Well, it's a relaxed event, but you should keep the serious professionalism until the team has been built. Otherwise you'll risk the few remaining reasons to keep this tradition. For players, young and old, it's always a moment of recognition for a job well done. Please, don't mess it up with personal bias.

2012/01/10

Half way there

The season is half baked with most teams reaching the 40 game plateau. For some teams it's actually fully baked by now. But anyway, it's time to see where we are with some words on clubs that seem to fill up the headlines this season.

The good teams of 2011-2012 are mostly as expected. Now that Minnesota has had its honeymoon and heading back to the familiar conference basement, there's just the familiar packs like Rangers, Bruins, Flyers, Canucks, Red Wings and Sharks sitting on top of the conferences. Only the disastrous first half by Washington Capitals has produced a quirk in Florida Panthers hovering on the top three in Eastern conference. The funny fact of the day is that the whole Southeast division is below zero in goal difference. The least bad team will make it to the playoffs.

At the moment my money goes for an encore by Boston Bruins. That team is just so talented, deep and tough that it will take a massive effort to squeeze four wins from their hands in a playoff series. In East, the biggest challenger was Pittsburgh, until they ended up losing most of their top tier talent to injuries. Maybe, if the Penguins regroup early enough to make it to the playoffs, they still have a chance for an upset. Philly could match Boston in a brawl series, but don't have the depth in hockey skills to win in a fair game. Rangers have a strong tradition of failing in the end of the season and while they look good now, I don't see them as a contender.

The finals opponent from West will likely be Vancouver Canucks for another try and miss. If they get surprised in the battle for Western crown, there's Chicago Blackhawks to take on the Bruins. That, too, would be a brilliantly entertaining series for the Cup.

It's great to see some spark on the former powerhouses like Ottawa and New Jersey. Maybe this is a sign of another push for the spot in the premier teams' shortlist.

St. Louis Blues are the black horse on this race. They have surprised everyone under new coach Ken Hitchcock by having a very long stretch of hard working and very productive hockey. If they can carry this momentum all the way through the season, who knows how far they can go. Compared to previous years, a playoff spot would already be counted as a success.

The second half of the season will still show us if the disappointments in Washington and Los Angeles can be turned to a sure playoff spot and even a run for the Cup. Hopefully so, both teams are way too talented to not play at their full potential for the fans of hockey.

In the bottom of the standings you can find the teams everyone expected to end up there. Columbus, Edmonton, Calgary, NY Islanders and Carolina are just that bad currently. And out of these, only Edmonton has some justification in being there with its roster full of kids fresh up from junior leagues. They have a bright future unless they lose the core of the team, but the rest of this pack is just sad.

Deep down in the darkness we can also find two potentially great teams in Anaheim Ducks and Tampa Bay Lightning. Both have tremendous talent in their rosters, should have decent supporting cast for the superstars and even have proven goaltending to back it all up. Anaheim even changed their coach to Bruce Boudreau, who had a stellar record from his last position. Despite of all this, both seem to be doomed for the season unless they can limit the losses to half a dozen for the second half.

Next time to look at the standings will be near the regular season end. The last 10 games or so are always a thrill. And naturally a perfect time to show some foresight.

2011/12/19

Unsung heroes

While we all enjoy reading about the brightest stars in the league, it's every now and then good to take a look at some of the heroes that don't get their names on the media coverage as much as they maybe deserve. I'll throw in some names that might appear on the name plates on silverware in the end of the season to surprise us all.

Let's start defence first to honor many coaches favorite clichés. Has anyone noticed that Minnesota Wild has been hovering on top of the NHL for some time now and doesn't look like going anywhere? The team is in bottom 5 of goals scored in the whole league but still manages somehow to stay on the winning end. This team really knows how to defend. They trap, block shots and have apparently three amazing goaltenders in the lineup. But who's leading the team to this workmanlike success? Wild captain Mikko Koivu leads the team in points and plus-minus. He plays almost the same minutes as the leading defensive pair in the team. He's in the rink on powerplay or while shorthanded. If Minnesota keeps up the rest of the season, this guy deserves the Selke trophy.

To the points race and Art Ross trophy. Now with Crosby out of the competition, there is actually a race for this. The Sedin twins are in the mix as always, newcomers like blossoming Claude Giroux and comeback-kid Phil Kessel are there to be followed. But there's also a Slovak threat in form of Marian Hossa, who seems to have found both his health and level of play after couple of sluggish years. The whole Chicago team is rocking and even on route for grabbing the Stanley Cup in the end. Hossa has taken over equally impressive Jonathan Toews and Patrik Sharp in the points race and is the hottest player on this massively talented squad at the moment. He's also leading his team in the plus-minus with +18 and has the perfect combination of offensive skills and experience to keep going steadily until the end of the season. Who knows if Hossa would end up on top of the points pile in springtime.

The new faces on NHL this season have been again really fun to watch. There seems to be no reason why 18 year old kids couldn't play with the older pro athletes. Take look at Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. He's actually so good that there's no one to challenge him in the offencive end this season for the Calder trophy. There's other kids like New Jersey's Adam Henrique and Philly's Matt Reed, but they cannot keep up with the number one pick's pace this season. So, the challenger for the trophy has to come from the defence lineup. The number one candidate may be New Jersey's other rookie called Adam. Yound Swedish defender Adam Larsson has played entertaining hockey on a mediocre Devils lineup. He's connecting really well with the offensive artists in the team like Ilya Kovalchuck. Unfortunately that playful style, while sometimes productive, also leads to quite bad numbers in the plus-minus. If he can turn up the defence skills a notch while not steering away from courageous, imaginative plays, there might be a chance to challenge the RNH for the Calder title. If not, well the wunderkind from Edmonton will raise that cup in the end.

Then the masked men. In the Vezina talks there's one guy who seems to fly constantly under the radar while really establishing himself as the backbone of a famed franchise. Detroit's Jimmy Howard leads the pack on wins and has very impressive stats on GAA (1.91) and save percentage (0.929). Still, the Vezina race he seems to always go unnoticed. Maybe it's the legacy of unforgettable Red Wings goalies like Dominik Hasek that keep on casting a shade on Howard's heroics. Detroit has been doing incredibly well this season with the lineup combining Hall of fame bound veterans like Datsuyk and Lidström with some rather unknown grinders. Comparing Howard's position behind this team to the setup for e.g. Tim Thomas and Marc-Andre Fleury should shine some light on how well he's played this season. Hopefully he gets the recognition he deserves in the ceremonies too.

Finally the ever so thrilling goals race. Rocket Richard trophy is likely seen as a race between rebounding Phil Kessel and last years' top cannon Steven Stamkos. However, right behind these guys is currently injured Ottawa Senator, Milan Michalek with 19 goals already under his belt. Michalek has the best accuracy by far on the top scorers and so far this season he's been phenomenal in finding the spots where the goals can be shoveled in. Okay, his wrister is definitely a dangerous weapon, but there has been numerous game highlights displaying Michalek backhanding or tapping in goals from goal mouth scambles or just on the perimeter of the scrum in front. If he returns to the lineup soon and keeps this pace, who knows where he'll land on the goals race in the end. The fun statistic for Michalek is that he only has 6 assists to goal with his bucketfull of goals. I wonder if it tells more about his skills to finish the play or trust for his linemates abilities in the same task.

It'll be fun to watch these sleeper picks for the rest of the season and see if they really can challenge the obvious candidates for the personal spotlight.

2011/12/09

Violent times

The hockey news have recently started to feel more and more like a police report of some serial abuser. Is this a sign of rising tempers on the ice or just a mere reflection of the current world and its increasing focus on peeking into nasty incidents and filth? If the first theory is true, we'll be seeing a lot of Mr. Shanahan on the video clips to come. If the latter, well I guess it's time to look in the mirror and ask what are we relly looking for in the coverage of our favorite sport.

I'll chip in by producing another article on the violent topic. I'll try to inject some sense within the gallery of gore.

I'll try to avoid the Sidney Crosby threshold here, otherwise I'd have to write about every bump that happens in the game. Instead, I'll focus on some of the recent serious incidents on the rinks around NHL.

Let's start with fellow Finn Ville Leino of the Buffalo Sabres. I knew the guy was extremely talented, but his nasty elbow on the head of Flyers rookie sensation Matt Read was in its viciousness a tribute to superhuman limb coordination. Leino used his left knee to knock Read's stick up, his right foot to kick the puck to himself and delivered a "no-look elbow" straight to the head of the unsuspecting rookie. All this in a fragment of a second, with perfect coordination. One game suspension is light and likely mostly so because Shanahan, regardless of his unquestionable merits on ice, couldn't have pulled that off himself and thus writes it off as an reckless accident. Hopefully Read didn't get any damage on the play and Leino vents his frustration of unproductiveness on other levels of play in the future.

Moving then to a distinguished bad boy Krys Barch. On his first game as a Florida Panther, he managed to destroy Boston's Daniel Paille on a thunderous hit near the boards. Paille spent four games on the press box after vicious headshot in February. Conspiracy theorists should all already connect the dots on the fact that the victim on Paille's check was Raymond Sawada, then a teammate of Krys Barch in Dallas. Barch hasn't yet received a suspension on the hit, but Paille is very likely out with a concussion. To make matters worse for Daniel Paille, he just returned from some time off the roster after stopping a slap shot with his nose. The ratio of buck for pain is definitely getting worse for him. Tough guys..

On the same night, Edmonton Oilers' Andy Sutton jumped off the ice to smash Carolina's Alexei Ponikarovsky's head on the boards. That's a 245lbs of mean meat aimed directly at someone's head. He's been suspended a few times in the past for irresponsible hits on ice and this is just getting ridiculous. Ponikarovsky is a big guy himself and there's no info on his status, but I find it very unlikely that he'll be able to play for a while. Sutton on the other hand is suspended indefinitely and will likely be looking at some extended time on the stationary bike and gym. Definitely not on the ice for a while.

And to cap the night of irresponsibility, Colorado's fourth liner Kevin Porter's knee-on-knee hit destroyed David Booth's dreams of starting to click in the Vancouver Canucks' lineup. Booth is out for at least a month with knee injury and Porter sits out the next four games as reminder.

On a week where we already saw Nashville Predators' Jordin Tootoo get suspended for trying to re-concuss Buffalo's star goalie Ryan Miller and Dallas Stars' Mark Fistric get three games ban for jumping off the ice to knock Islanders' Nino Niederreiter out with concussion, this recent burst of violent incidents just seems to underline the dangers of this game.

But in the end, has anything changed? Ice hockey is, and will always be, a rough sport. The players know it and the fans expect it. The players are professionals and practice every day to be able to navigate the hazards on ice. You can't take the physicality off the game without changing the whole sport. Everyone knows that.

The league is working hard on limiting the number of severe injuries, especially on the head area. But at the same time these get picked up to the headlines way easier than before and thus portray the picture of ice hockey as more violent than ever. I wonder will this new focus on injuries subconsciously also program some of the game's loose cannons to aim for the spotlight? There must be a sociopath or two out there who'd like to steal the headlines for a day or two on the sports coverage, right?

2011/11/30

The short lifespan of an NHL coach

So, now it has started. The season is one quarter out and coaches are getting the boot. St. Louis Blues already got rid of their starting coach and went back to old timer Hitchcock. In retrospect that looks like a brilliant move. At the time, it seemed just a bit too trigger-happy. The Blues were doing ok, not great, but I believe what was expected from them by the general public.

Now it was time for a change in struggling Carolina. Well expected and maybe their last chance to turn this season around. I can't see them clawing back to playoffs anymore, but the ownership seems to.

On the same day the biggest bomb was dropped in Washington, where Bruce Boudreau was let go after taking the Capitals from bottom dwellers to the top of the league in just a few seasons. The modern day quarter economy equivalent in the game of hockey does not look at the past results or give much of a chance of failure. All over the media the explanations from Capitals' ownership were rather dodgy. And the sheer amount of interviews claiming that Boudreau had no bad blood with Ovechkin or vice versa, actually prove the opposite point. The team, lead by its celebrity captain, just couldn't work for this guy anymore. Some new system, huh?

It's a some sort of a miracle that Columbus Blue Jackets haven't fired their coach yet. They're actually already at the point where the ownership has given up on the season and seem to have decided to save some money instead of having to pay salaries for two coaches. If the fans start some sort of a mutiny, maybe they'll comply and claim that they're building for the next season with the move.

Anaheim Ducks have slipped down to the bottom of the league. They're running out of the seasons where they can keep their star lineup together and it must be just a matter of getting the papers out of their printer, before they have a new coach. They need to push for the Cup run now or face the return to rebuilding mode in the coming seasons.

After rather disappointing start of a season, coaching changes may arise in Tampa Bay or even Montreal. Colorado's brilliant start may have taken the expectations up a notch too to jeopardize the current leadership now that they've actually just fallen to the expected levels.

The rest of the struggling teams are either young and expected still to have growth pains, like Edmonton, Winnipeg and New York Islanders or just plain clueless like Calgary and New Jersey and cannot seem to see what good could another coaching change do.

The fun of getting fired from the NHL head coach position doesn't end in the heavy paychecks that usually follow through the original contract. It also seems to be a commonly agreed fact that failed coaches instantly regain the trust on their competence by all the teams in need of a new guy behind the bench. Fail as miserably as you can and it's still likely that you get hired before the season is over. Pick up two paychecks for the rest of the year as a bonus.

Now it's going to be very interesting to see how the chips fall with the teams with the most pressure to act. I wouldn't be surprised to see Mr. Boudreau moving down to sunny California before the end of this week..

2011/11/23

If I was a gambling man

Let's put the hockey hunch to grind in some money. The local betting office posts the ratios for win, loss and a regulation tie. And since it all seems so clear in the ways of the league, it's about time to do a reality check of sorts. I'll just pick up a few games that are sure, easy money and another bunch of a bit longer shots but bigger potential payout. Five bucks each. Short analysis for each pair and a remorseful recap in the morning to close up the post. Don't worry, I won't tamper my original estimates and try to appear smarter than I am. Let's face it, if it would be this easy, it wouldn't be available for the common audience. Let's go then!

Sure bets, absolutely cannot go wrong with these, right?

NYI-PHI: Well, Philly takes this easily. They're bigger, meaner, stronger and have loads of more talent throughout the roster. Islanders still wonder what hit them on Monday, something black and yellow and #87, and forget to play the game. Returns 1,95:1, ka-ching.

PIT-STL: Crosby honeymoon is on and St. Louis is not the team to challenge that. Sid the Kid will deposit a few more points and the supporting cast wants to prove they're right on par with the wonder boy. A night to forget for coach Hitchcock's band. Another multiplier of 1,75:1 for my bucks.

BUF-BOS: The Sabres are very similar to the Bruins, just worse on every aspect at the moment. The teams play similar style of hard working, evenly balanced lines. Thomas outduels Enroth easily and Boston's boys just walk over their counterparts for the victory #10 in the current hot streak. Finalizes my sure money bet with complimentary 2,20:1.

I'll bring home a sweet pot of €37,50 for an investment of $5,00. Like taking candy from a kid.

Then the trickier bet. Not that this is too difficult either, but there's a remote chance that someone somewhere along the line screws up my moneymaker.

WAS-WPG: Boudreau's big guns are soon all on the shelf with the new style of boring, non-scoring game plan. Today they give this style the final try and get crushed by the inconsistent, but capable-when-given-the-opportunity, Jets. For the next game Bruce gives up on the plan for the playoff grind and lets the two Alexes play like they like. Then it'll be very difficult to say what will happen on the ice. This sleeper starts my bigger cash-in with a whopper 3,55:1.

NJ-CLB: The Blue Jackets seem to have found some groove now that they can just play for fun for the rest of the season. The Devils are a perfect opponent for that kind of approach, being the gloomy, play-the-gameplan, uninnovative team that they are. Carter puts in a pair and Nash complements with two of his own. Curtis Sanford wants to prove he can be the long lost number one netminder and who would be better opposing goalie to take for the comparison than the best ever to stand between the pipes, Martin Brodeur. Jackets' third in a row multiplies my dough by 3,45:1.

MIN-NAS: These teams will play another very low scoring game. Minnesota finds itself on top of the league, but absolutely cannot score. Nashville had major difficulties against the young Oilers' squad and need to prove that they're actually way better. Pekka Rinne will shut the door after being benched after the first on Tuesday and the team will play much more solid game today. However, they're against the ultra defensive Wild who can throw either goalie out there and keep the score low. As much as I hate to bet on ties, this sure looks like one. Hell, we might be looking at a 0-0 in the end. The sleepy effort will not match the money invested in tickets, but will finish my triple with a sweet 3,65:1 cherry on top.

My second crumpled note of five euros will explode to a highly satisfying payout of €223,50 in the end of the day.

-- end of evening brag.

-- beginning of morning whine.

Okay, this got rather ridiculous. I was expecting that I can somehow explain myself out of a slight deviation from the original guess, but the reality requires a bit more. I outright busted on the bets in the end. No need to consider a new career here, yet.

Sure picks, right? Philly won the Islanders, but barely and only in overtime. So that ended in a tie on the betting results. Sid the Kid fell short and somehow the Blues ended up taking the game. Again in the overtime, so another tie. And Boston Bruins then? They got the victory, but only with the slightest of margins and after a third period rally. Another tie in regulation and the victory only in the overtime. Three out of three wrong on the sure picks. What a way to start.

Well, after that it's pretty obvious that the higher degree of analysis didn't go much better. The Capitals did eventually beat the Jets, again on the overtime. Not an easy victory, but not the result I picked either. The Blue Jackets did have the moral victory in totally dominating the game against the Devils. However, it was Martin Brodeur, who stole the show, not Curtis Sanford. A regulation tie again and shootout victory to New Jersey. Finally, I can end this disastrous recap of my prophetic abilities on a regulation victory. It was close as I predicted, but Minnesota Wild ended up scoring one more than the Nashville Predators. I need to point my finger at Pekka Rinne on this one, the third and decisive goal was rather embarassing. Solid three out of three wrong here too.

This was a fun excercise, even though the results were downright awful. Maybe I need to get another crystal ball and give it a try somewhere in the future. Can't really go much worse than this, right? With so many regulation ties this night, I'd bet (huh!?) that very few got their picks right. The betting offices were the big winners on this round.

2011/11/21

Funky stats

There's enough games under everyone's belt to take a deeper look on the statistics so far. Not looking at the obvious ones, everyone can see those, but trying to peek behind the scenes and point out some oddities. Somewhat random, but if you're in, strangely interesting.

Disappearance of Alex Ovechkin. The guy gets paid 100k a game, has proven to be one of the unique talents in the league, but now lingers somewhere in mediocrity. 14 points in 18 games is fine for most, but less than expected from Ovie. The troubling fact is his -6 rating. That's the worst in the whole team! And the team is way over .500 and +2 on goals. What has Alex been doing? Not shooting is one thing. In the previous seasons he's been blasting away on the top of the league stats. Now, barely in top20. Defending, like coach Boudreau claims? Half of the hits than the league's biggest bruisers, three blocked shots. Doesn't look like much. He's playing 3-5 minutes less than in the previous years, maybe due to less than expected production. The bottom line seems to be that mr. Ovechkin is either injured or just not motivated enough. Both are bad for Washington, but later might be harder to fix.

The curse of Eric Staal. Staal has been among the top forwards of this league for several years. He's proven to be a great captain and a hard worker. But now he and his team are in a slump to remember. Leading the league unchallenged in -18. Shooting second most in the league with 5% accuracy. 8 points in 20 games, half of them in powerplay. Talk about squeezing the stick. Big Eric must snap out of this and carry the Hurricanes on his back again, if they have any dreams of the playoffs.

Teen-aged and fearless. Have you noticed a kid called Gabriel Landeskog in Colorado Avalanche? Well, if not, please look for the number #92 in the future. This Swedish rookie is in top20 of the league in shots fired and hits delivered. And was just promoted to play in the top line. Must be hard to miss. It's great to see the rookies of today playing just like the big boys. No fear, no bowing, and ready to challenge. Edmonton's Ryan Nugent-Hopkins just posted 5 assists the other day. Wonder how many rookies have had that many on a game in the history of this sport? Well a guy named Gretzky had 7 back in the day, but Nugent-Hopkins likely made it to the top 5. Coincidentally, that heroic effort also puts Ryan on par with slightly older, but yet ever promising forward from the Ducks, Teemu Selänne. It'll be a fun race between guys aged 18 and 41 for the rest of the season. Place your bets!

Grabbing the momentum in the circle. Chicago's Jonathan Toews leads the league in faceoffs taken and has the biggest win percentage of the active centers on the paint at whopping 62,4%. That sure brings an extra edge to the game when you can grab almost two out of three to your linemates. And the linemates in particular are called Kane and Hossa, which doesn't hurt either. On the other end of the spectrum we have the polite Czech, Patrik Elias, from the Devils, who takes only a modest share of 42,4% of the many faceoffs he faces. I wonder, could the wingers do much worse there?

The Suter-Weber wall. Among the Nashville Predators' hot topics is how to keep their top defencive pair of Ryan Suter and Shea Weber. That might prove to be a bit tricky, but that shouldn't keep the team from enjoying the ride these two defensive monsters bring. They have the biggest plus minus ratings in the league, they stand in the top5 in d-man scoring and just seem to do everything right at the moment. I'd hate to play as a visiting forward in Nashville when paired agains these two. Tough and frustrating in the offensive zone, outright scary in the defensive zone diving in front of Weber's cannon.

Speaking of defensemen, Colorado's ever promising Erik Johnson must be hating the stats charts. He just hit 50 shots, leading the league in attempts in vain. Zero goals, one assist on even strength (8 more on powerplay though) and a miserable -12 rating. Can't really say that he's fulfilled the expectations yet. Maybe he should call up Detroit's colleagues Lidström and Kronwall for some consulting. They've both let go about as many shots and are looking at 6 goals apiece. Not to mention the positive ratings in plus minus column.

Well, that was the take today. I'll be drilling more some other time. Hope you enjoy!